房地产价格波动与区域经济发展间的实证研究  

Relationship between volatility of real estate price and regional economic

作　　者：赵文忠[1] 牟玲玲[1] 安楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报》2013年第5期115-118,共4页Journal of Hebei University of Technology

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金(G2011202184);河北省高等学校人文社会科学项目(SY13102);河北省高等学校自然科学项目(2011111)

摘　　要：目前房地产业已经成为国民经济发展的重要方面.由于区域差异性的影响,一个区域的房地产价格应与当地的经济发展水平相适应、相制约.本文以天津房地产市场为研究对象,对房地产价格波动与区域经济基本面变量的关系进行定量分析,选取近20年的商品房价格、地区人均生产总值、房地产开发投资额、城镇居民可支配收入、利率等指标为变量,对影响房价波动的关键因素进行识别,分析结论对房地产发展政策的科学制定有一定的参考意义.The real estate industry has become an important aspect of national economic development. Because of the impact of regional differences, a regional real estate prices should be compatible with the level of local economic development. This paper has made a quantitative analysis of the real estate market in Tianjin via the relationship between real estate price fluctuations and regional economic variables. We select the prices of real estate in the last 20 years, per capita GDP, real estate development and investment, urban residents' disposable income, interest rates and other indicators of variables to identify the key factors affecting the price fluctuations. The conclusion will provide Tianjin with a useful reference in making policies for real estate development.

关 键 词：房地产价格 区域经济 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F293.3F127