湖北麻城马尾松树轮宽度对气候的响应及1879年以来6~9月平均最高气温重建  

The June–September maximum mean temperature reconstruction from Masson pine(Pinus massoniana Lamb.) tree rings in Macheng,southeast China since 1879 AD

作　　者：蔡秋芳[1] 刘禹[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地球环境研究所,黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710075 [2]西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程学院环境科学与技术系,西安710049

出　　处：《科学通报》2013年第S1期169-177,共9页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41171170);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB955903);黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室自主部署基金(SKLLQG)资助

摘　　要：定年准确的树木年轮资料是延长现有器测气象记录、获取过去千年来高分辨率气候变化的主要资料来源之一,然而目前我国东南大部分地区树轮气候学研究仍属空白.利用采自鄂豫皖三省交界的大别山中段南麓湖北麻城的两组马尾松树轮资料,建立了研究区的两条标准树轮宽度年表.统计相关分析表明,树轮宽度和降水的关系不明显,而与几乎所有分析月份的平均气温和平均最高气温都显著负相关,其中HTG0组与6~9月平均最高气温的相关系数最高(r=–0.61,P【0.001).本文重建了湖北麻城地区1879年以来的6~9月平均最高气温变化历史.重建气温表现出明显的不对称'W'变化型.在重建时段内存在1940~1957年、1971~1998年2个冷期和1959~1970,1999~2011年2个暖期.此外,重建气温可分为2个明显的变化阶段:1940年之前气温年际变化较大,极值年出现的频率较高,但是没有明显冷期或暖期出现;1940年以后气温年代际变化增大,极值出现年份相对减少,但是出现了明显的高温期和低温期,并且连续4年以上的冷期和暖期均出现在这一时段内.目前湖北麻城地区6~9月平均最高气温仍在缓慢上升,但是处于温度变化的自然范畴之内.空间相关分析及与周边其他树轮温度重建序列的对比均表明重建的麻城地区6~9月平均最高温度变化可指示其周边较大范围的同期温度变化情况.High-resolution and accurately dated tree-ring material is one of the major tools for studying past climate change during the last millennia. However,to date,dendroclimatological studies in southeast China are scarce because of the complicated relationship between tree rings and climatic factors,as well as the paucity of old trees and difficulties in dating. In the present paper,two Masson pine tree-ring chronologies(HTG0 and HTG2) were developed in Macheng,a junction area of three provinces(Hubei,Anhui and Henan) in southeast China. Strongly negative relationships were detected between the ring width and the seasonal mean and maximum temperatures from September to October,current March to April and June to September. The strongest correlation was identified between HTG0 and the maximum mean temperature from June to September(Tmax6–9,r=-0.61,P<0.001). A simple regression model was designed to reconstruct Tmax6–9 from 1879 to 2011. The reconstruction accounts for 37.2% of the explained variance of instrumentally observed Tmax6–9 over the period 1959–2008. The reconstructed temperature displayed an asymmetric 'W' type. A long,gradually decreasing trend from 1879 to 1951,and an increasing trend since 1983 were observed. Moreover,two cold(1940–1957; 1971–1998) and two warm(1959–1970; 1999–2011) intervals were identified during the past 133 years. In addition,spatial correlation analysis revealed that the Tmax6–9 reconstruction was regionally representative for a large area of southeast China,especially extending to the west of the sample site. This was also verified by other tree-ring based temperature series around this region. This study is expected to clarify the climatic conditions in southeast China beyond the instrumental record,as well as the possible response of Masson pine to future global warming for forest management purposes.

关 键 词：麻城 马尾松 树轮宽度 气候响应 最高气温重建 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]