城市化水平与土地利用关系的动态计量分析——以洱海流域为例  

A Dynamic Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization and Land Use:Taking Erhai Basin as an Example

作　　者：董利民[1] 徐持平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2013年第2期2-8,14,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"现阶段我国城市土地整理风险防范与治理对策研究"(12AGL006);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项"洱海全流域清水方案与社会经济发展友好模式研究课题"(2009ZX07105-001);华中师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"洱海绿色流域建设的结构控污思路及其应用"(120002040265)

摘　　要：为考察城市化与土地利用之间以及城市化背景下各类土地利用之间的关系,依据洱海流域1990~2011年的时序数据,利用动态计量分析中的协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法,该研究对洱海流域城市化与土地利用之间的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系进行了检验和分析。研究发现在研究期内洱海流域城市化与土地利用之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内存在失衡;城市化与土地利用之间以及城市化背景下不同类型土地利用之间的关系在城市化进程的不同阶段表现出不同的特征;城市化变动主要受自身冲击的影响,农业用地的主要影响因素是城市化和建设用地,建设用地的变动主要受自身冲击影响,生态环境用地的变动主要来自于建设用地的影响。据此提出相应的对策建议。To explore the relationship between urbanization and land use as well as the interactions among different kinds of land use in the background of urbanization,some econometric methods such as the co-integration,IRF and variance decomposition were used to analyze relevant data of Erhai Basin during the period from 1990 to 2011. Results showed that there were long-term stable equilibrium relations between urbanization and land use whereas things are different in short term. Research exhibited that the relationship between urbanization and land use showed different characteristics in different stages of urbanization. It was also found that changes of urbanization and construction land had a significant correlation with themselves,urbanization and construction land played an important role in the change of agricultural land,urbanization is the main influence factor of the change of ecological land. At last,this article put forward some countermeasures according to the issue.

关 键 词：城市化 土地利用 VAR模型 脉冲响应 洱海流域 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F301.24F224