我国工业系统主要污染物总量减排分析  

An Analysis of the Driving Forces for the Reduction of Key Pollutant Emission in Chinese Industrial System

作　　者：周涛[1] 姚亮[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学中国产业安全研究中心,北京100044 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京100085

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2013年第2期235-239,共5页Ecological Economy

摘　　要：工业系统是我国污染产生与排放的主要来源,也是污染总量减排的重点。文章以我国工业系统及其总量减排污染物SO2和COD为研究对象,通过我国第一次污染源普查数据对环境统计历史数据进行了修正,运用因子分解分析方法分析了我国政府提出的"三大污染减排措施":工程减排、结构减排、管理减排与工业总规模四个因子对工业系统SO2和COD减排的贡献,识别了主要驱动因子。研究表明,近十年来特别是"十一五"期间,工程减排和管理减排对SO2和COD减排的贡献最大,是环境库兹涅茨曲线出现拐点的主要原因,而结构减排的作用不明显。未来我国工程减排和管理减排的潜力逐渐减少,边际成本逐渐增大,必须着重通过调整经济结构来实现污染减排和环境质量的改善。Industry is the main source of pollution production and emission in China,also it's the key point for pollution emission reduction. This study focuses on the investigation of two typical industry pollutants,sulfur dioxide( SO2) and chemical oxygen demand( COD).( i) It revises historical data concerning environmental statistics based on the documents of NCPS;( ii) It analyzes the contributions and comparative significance of the four driving forces of pollution reduction: facilities,restructuring,management,and the overall industrial scale in the change of SO2and COD emissions by index decomposition analysis;( iii) It recognizes the main driving forces for SO2and COD emission reduction in China's industry system. The results indicates that,with continually increasing pollution pressure caused by rapid economic development,pollution reduction by facilities and management have made the main contributions to reducing SO2and COD emissions,which is the reason for the inflection point in the Environmental Kuznets Curve,whereas pollution reduction by restructuring has not had an obvious effect. In the future,pollution reduction by facilities and management will gradually have less potential and become more challenging,so pollution emission reduction and improvement of environmental quality should be achieved through the adjustment of the economic structure.

关 键 词：工业系统 污染物减排 驱动因子 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程]