弱势美元对中国省级出口技术水平的影响  

The Effect of a Weak US Dollar on Provincial Export Technology Levels in China

作　　者：沈国兵[1,2] 李康[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]复旦大学世界经济研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2014年第7期97-107,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY142);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地2013年重大项目(13JJD790005);上海市教委与教育发展基金会曙光计划项目(11SG10);复旦大学青年教师科研能力提升项目(20520132060)资助

摘　　要：2002年以来,伴随弱势美元和人民币的实际升值,汇率变化通过对不同技术含量产品的影响作用于不同技术产品的出口。我们采用更加细化的HS 4分位省级贸易数据,基于出口复杂度指数测算出中国省级出口技术水平,并使用省级变系数地理加权回归(GWR)模型探究汇率变化对中国省级出口技术水平的影响。结果发现,弱势美元对东部省份出口技术水平的推动相对较小,而对中西部省份的推动相对较大,并具有明显的空间变异性。物质资本、人力资本、技术水平和FDI提升以及人民币汇改都对中国省级出口技术水平产生显著的促进作用,且物质资本和人力资本具有显著的空间变异性,而技术水平和FDI空间变异性不明显。据此,应借势人民币汇率调整对国内资源配置和产业升级的正效应来抵消对出口的负面影响;通过政策引导资本投资于中西部省份,大力发展中西部职业教育和技能培训来遏制其与东部省份出口技术水平差距的扩大。Since 2002,with a weak US dollar and real appreciation of RMB,the changes in exchange rates affect the export of different technology goods through the effects on goods with different technology qualities.This paper uses the HS 4-digit data of provincial trade and measures provincial export technology levels based on export sophistication index.And then it uses the GWR model with provincial variation coefficients to study the effects of changes in exchange rates on provincial export technology levels.The findings show that a weak US dollar has the relatively small impact on provincial export technology levels in east China,but has the relatively large impacts on provincial export technology levels in central and west China,showing obvious spatial variability.The improvement of physical capital,human capital,technology level and FDI,and the reform of RMB exchange rates have significant promotion effects on provincial export technology levels.Moreover,physical capital and human capital have significant spatial variability,while technology level and FDI have unobvious spatial variability.Therefore,China should depend on the positive effects of the adjustment to RMB exchange rates on domestic resource allocation and industrial upgrading to offset the negative effect on export,encourage capital investment in central and west China through policy guidance,and strongly develop professional education and skill training in central and west China to hold back the enlargement of the gap of export technology levels between east,and central and west China.

关 键 词：弱势美元 中国省级 出口技术水平 空间变异性 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F273.1[经济管理—产业经济] F837.12F224