开放经济下中国通胀预期的决定因素研究——基于国际垂直生产结构下的价格传导效应模型  

Research on the Determinants of China's Inflation Expectation in the Open Economy——Based on the Model of Price Transmission Effect Under International Vertical Production Structure

作　　者：王晓芳[1] 赵卫滨[1] 杨克贲[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安710061

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第5期51-58,共8页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：陕西省社会科学基金项目"通货膨胀预期的管理研究"(12D106)

摘　　要：基于国际垂直生产结构下的价格传导效应模型,构建了包含外生冲击的开放经济预期混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线,并运用经验数据从静态和动态两方面考察了通胀预期的价格传导效应及外生冲击对通胀预期的影响。研究发现:现实通胀和国际能源价格冲击对通胀预期影响较大;进口中间品价格对通胀预期存在显著的正向价格传导效应,而本国中间品价格与通胀预期之间却存在明显的"倒挂";央行的名义利率调控对通胀预期影响较弱。上述结果表明,单独依靠货币政策对通胀预期进行调控的效用有限,只有货币政策、财政政策和国家能源政策相配合,并着力进行经济增长方式的调整,才能在短期和长期内实现我国通胀预期的稳定。Based on the model of price transmission under the international vertical production structure, the study builds an Expected New Keynesian Phillips Curve which contains exogenous shocks in the open economy. With the test of empirical data, it also analyzes the price transmission effect of China's inflation expectations and the impact of exogenous shock on inflation expectations both in static and dynamic systems. The results show that real inflation and international energy prices are a crucial factor for inflation expectation; there is a significant effect of price transmission between foreign intermediate goods prices and inflation expectation, while a reversal relationship exists between domestic intermediate goods prices and inflation expectations; in addition, the inflation expectations are influenced insignificantly by regulation of central bank's nominal interest rate. Based on these results, the study indicates that relying solely on monetary policy to control inflation expectations could only obtain limited effects.Only when monetary policy, fiscal policy, national policy for energy are combined appropriately, while focusing on adjusting the mode of economic growth, could we achieved a steady condition for China's inflation expectations in both short and long terms.

关 键 词：开放经济 通胀预期 国际垂直生产结构 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学] F726.1