中国城镇化与房价变动的空间计量分析  

Spatial econometric analysis of Chinese urbanization and changes of real estate prices

作　　者：姜松[1] 王钊[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《科研管理》2014年第11期163-170,共8页Science Research Management

基　　金：国家软科学基金项目(2007GXS3D094);重庆市决策咨询与管理创新重点项目(cstc2013jccx B0022);中央高校基本科研基金(SWU1209457)

摘　　要：基于中国省际面板数据,构建动态空间面板模型展开城镇化与房地产价格变动的空间计量分析。研究发现,以非农就业人口衡量的城镇化对房地产价格变动影响显著为负。邻近省份的城镇化会带动区域房地产价格上涨,但受劳动力市场分割的约束,空间溢出效应并不显著。从其他变量看,房价预期、外商直接投资、土地供应、货币政策、基础设施条件、城镇居民收入、贸易开放等变量对房地产价格变动的影响及空间溢出效应不同。文章最后基于实证结论,给出了相关政策建议。Based on inter- provincial panel data of China,this paper builds a suitable dynamic spatial panel model to analyze the effect of urbanization on changes of real estate prices. The effect of urbanization measured by nonfarm payrolls on changes of real estate prices is significant negative. Urbanization of neighboring provinces can drive the real estate prices to rise,owing to the segmentation of the labor market,its spatial spillover effect is not significant. The effect and spatial spillover effect of foreign direct investment,land supply,monetary policy,infrastructure conditions,income of urban residents,and trade openness on changes of real estate prices are different. Finally,based on the empirical results,related policy implications are recommended in the paper.

关 键 词：城镇化 房地产价格 空间计量 UMLE 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] F299.23