中国海风能密度预报  

Forecasting of the China Sea Wind Energy Density

作　　者：郑崇伟[1,2] 周林[2] 宋帅 苏勤[4] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院 [2]92538部队 [3]总参气象水文局 [4]海洋出版社

出　　处：《广东海洋大学学报》2014年第1期71-77,共7页Journal of Guangdong Ocean University

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2012CB957803);公益行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306026)

摘　　要：利用NCEP预报风场,对2013年3月中旬发生在中国海的一次强冷空气过程进行分析,并利用预报风场计算得到这期间的风能密度,实现"风能密度数值预报",可为风电机采集风能提供日常保障,以提高装备的采集、转换效率。结果表明,1)NCEP预报风场可以很好地刻画冷空气给中国海带来的大风过程,从曲线走势、相关系数、偏差、均方根误差、平均绝对误差等分析也发现,NCEP预报风速在中国海具有很高精度。2)冷空气影响的海域,伴有明显的大风的过程,风能密度也出现明显的增幅。冷空气影响渤海时,该海域大部分区域的风速在10 m/s以上,大值中心在16 m/s以上;风能密度基本都在1 400 W/m2以上。冷空气影响的海域容易出现10 m/s以上的大风,对应区域的风能密度基本都在1 400 W/m2以上;冷空气的边缘海域风速也在8 m/s以上,风能密度在350 W/m2以上。3)利用NCEP预报风场,对海上风电场的风速、风能密度进行预报是可行的,可为风能开发、防灾减灾提供科学依据。Forecasting wind field by the NCEP was used to analyze the strong cold air in March 2013 occurred in China Sea, and the wind energy density was also calculated. Then "wind energy density numerical prediction"was presented. Results show that:1) forecasting winds can well describe the cold air process by NCEP. From the curve trend, correlation coefficient, bias, root mean square error, mean absolute error analysis also found that forecasting wind by NCEP has high accuracy. 2) Wind speed and wind energy density in waters affected by cold air showed a visible increase. Cold air in Bohai Sea, the waters in most regions of the wind speed is above 10 m/s, large value center even up to 16 m/s or more. Waters affected by cold air is usually above 10 m/s in wind speed; above 1400 W/m2in wind energy density. 3) Forecasting wind by NCEP is available to forecast wind speed and wind power density for offshore wind power station. And it also can provide guidance to disaster prevention.

关 键 词：风能密度数值预报 NCEP预报风场 中国海 冷空气 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学]