全球暴雨洪水灾害风险评估与制图  

Assessment and mapping of global fluvial flood risk

作　　者：方建[1,2] 李梦婕[1,2] 王静爱[1,3] 史培军[1,2,4] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2015年第1期1-8,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2012CB955403;2012CB955404);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(413221001)

摘　　要：全球洪水灾害风险评估是洪水综合风险管理的基础,对在宏观上把握洪水灾害风险的空间格局,识别全球洪水灾害的高风险区,为国际社会采取措施减轻洪水损失有重要意义。然而受数据和模型的限制,全球尺度的洪水风险评估工作十分有限。基于灾害系统理论,从洪水可能造成损失的评估以及洪水致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性、承灾体脆弱性综合分析的角度出发,利用全球范围内的降水、径流量、数字高程、土地利用、人口、GDP等数据,评估了国家、网格、流域3个单元上全球洪水灾害经济和人口风险。最后利用历史洪水损失及前人研究结果,对本研究评估结果进行了比较验证,其一致性较好,准确地反映了全球洪水灾害风险的空间分布。评估结果表明,受自然因素及人口经济分布的影响,亚洲地区(尤其是东亚、南亚及东南亚地区),美国中南部和欧洲西部洪水灾害风险最高。此外,由于社会经济发展和政府管理水平的落后,非洲地区洪水灾害人口风险也十分严峻。As a foundation of comprehensive flood risk management,global flood risk assessment would promote the understanding of global flood risk spatial pattern,facilitate the identification of global flood risk hotspots,and is of great significance for global flood loss reduction. However,subject to the deficiency of global data and large scale models,relevent work has been very limited. In this study,according to the theory of natural disaster system,we assessed flood disaster risk globally based on the evaluation of flood-induced potential losses as well as the synthetic analysis of hazard,exposure,vulnerability and the environmental factors. Using global datasets of precipitation,runoff,DEM,landuse,population,GDP and et al,we implemented the risk assessment at multiple levels of country,grid and large river basins with each of distinct method. Finally,the risk results and rankings were validated through the comparison with historical flood losses and also previous researches. Siginificant high consistency and accrate reflection of spatial distribution of globle flood risk were obtained. It could be inferred from the assessment that Asia( especially East,South and Southeast Asia),the south of North America( especaillylower reach of the Mississippi river) and the west of Europe are on the list of highest risk. Meanwhile,it is also notable that even through flood hazard is moderate,the population risk in Africa is still remarkable high.

关 键 词：全球 洪水灾害 风险评估 风险制图 区域规律 

分 类 号：TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]