台风灾害评估中的影响因子分析  

Influence factor analysis of typhoon disaster assessment

作　　者：巩在武[1] 胡丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2015年第1期203-213,共11页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171115);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(Bk20141481)

摘　　要：找出影响台风灾害评估的重要因子对于更科学、更合理地采集评估信息,建立灾情数据库具有重要意义。以浙江省为例,从致灾因子、承灾体和防灾减灾能力3个方面的25个影响因子,以死亡人数、倒塌房屋数、农作物受灾面积、直接经济损失和灾情指数为评价指标,通过相关分析方法找出评价指标影响较大的因子。利用所选取的因子,通过回归分析,对死亡人数、受灾农田面积、倒塌房屋间数和灾情指数进行了验证,结果表明,采用所提方法选取的因子去评估灾情是合理的。It is important for more scientific and reasonable collection of the assessment information and the establishment of the disaster situation database to identify key factors for disaster assessment of the typhoon. From respects of disaster-causing factors,hazard-affected bady factors and factors for disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities,taking Zhejiang Province as an example,25 factors were selected to analyze their impact on the number of deaths,the number of collapsed houses,affected areas of the crops,direct economic losses and disaster situation index. The key factors which impact on disaster assessment were determined by correlation analysis method from 25 factors. Based on the selected factors,the number of deaths,the number of collapsed houses,affected areas of the crops and disaster situation index were validated by regression analysis. The results show that using the factors selected by the proposed method to assess disaster losses is reasonable.

关 键 词：灾害评估 灰关联度分析 影响因子 台风 因子分析 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]