重大岩土工程风险评估研究现状  

Review of risk assessment of major geotechnical project

作　　者：于汐[1,2] 薄景山[2,1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]防灾科技学院,河北三河065201

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2015年第3期12-19,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40702055);国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAC44B02-02);中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目(ZY20110102)

摘　　要：重大岩土工程在建设和运营的过程中存在若干不确定性,这些不确定性导致了重大岩土工程风险的存在,风险评估是重大岩土工程建设科学决策的重要依据。半个世纪以来,岩土工程界在这一领域开展了一系列的研究工作,取得了一些有价值的研究成果。总结了国内外岩土工程风险评估的理论方法,阐述了各种风险评估模型的优缺点;分析了岩土工程风险因素,评述了风险评估指标体系的研究现状;还系统地介绍了国内外可接受风险的标准,探讨了确定可接受风险标准的关键问题。在系统总结国内外重大岩土工程风险评估研究的历史和现状的基础上,提出了今后5个方面的重点研究课题,可供这一领域的研究参考。There are some uncertainties in the period of construction and operation of major geotechnical project,which are the sources of the risk. Risk assessment is the important foundation of scientific decision-making for the major geotechnical project. A series of studies on the geotechnical project risk assessment have been done in the past half a century,and many worthy achievements have been obtained. This article summarizes the domestic and international theories and methods of risk assessment for geotechnical engineering and reviews the advantages and disadvantages of several risk assessment models,analyzes the risk factors and expounds the present situation of the study on the risk assessment index system of geotechnical engineering. The article also systematically introduces domestic and international acceptable risk criteria and explores the key problems to determie them. On the basis of systematically summarizing historical and existing assessment research on major gelolgical project risk at home and abroad,the key research topics in five aspects is presented. The work done in this article may provide a reference for research on this topic.

关 键 词：重大岩土工程 风险评估 风险评估方法 风险评估指标 可接受风险标准 

分 类 号：TU71[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]