中美巴印过去300年耕地时空变化的比较研究  

Characteristics of cropland change in China, the United States, Brazil and India over the past 300 years

作　　者：李美娇[1,2,3] 何凡能[1,2] 肖冉[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2015年第1期64-72,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950901);国家自然科学基金项目(41271227)

摘　　要：本文利用长时间序列数据,对中、美、巴、印四国过去300年耕地时空变化特征及驱动因素进行了比较分析。结果表明:1四国耕地总量在过去300年均呈持续增长态势。中国和印度土地垦殖历史悠久,其中,中国在1700-1980s耕地面积增加了68.21×104km2,印度在1700-2000年增加了131.28×104km2,为中国的1.92倍;美国和巴西虽然农业起步较晚,但发展迅猛,其中,美国在1700-1950年的250年间耕地面积增长了190.87×104km2,分别是中国、印度增量的2.80倍和1.46倍;巴西在1700-2000年增加了64.57×104km2,其中近百年的增量为62.82×104km2,超过了同期其他三国的增加量。2从空间格局变化特征看,近300年来,中国和印度均是在已有耕地分布格局的基础上向高原及山地丘陵地区扩展;而美国在"西进运动"的影响下,耕地大规模向中西部拓殖;巴西随着向北西部开发的推进,北部、西部地区的耕地急剧增加。3过去300年推动四国土地垦殖发展最直接的驱动因素是国家政策,但就根本驱动因素而言,中国和印度是人口,而美国和巴西则是国家财政;在农技发展取向方面,中国和印度选择了精耕细作以提高土地生产率;而美国和巴西则选择了机械化以提高劳动生产率。Comparative studies of large-scale land use and land cover change(LUCC) of different countries can offer some insight into its historical evolution and driving forces, as well as providing relevant information on land- use regulation, adaptation to global climate change, and historical responsibility for carbon emissions. In the present study, we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of LUCC in China, the United States, Brazil, and India over the past 300 years based on time-series population and cropland data. The results show an increasing trend in the cropland area in all four countries. The cropland area has increased by 68.21×104km2during 1700-1980 s in China, 131.28×104km2during 1700-2000 in India, 190.87×104km2during 1700-1950 in the United States, and 62.82×104km2during 1900-2000 in Brazil, respectively. Characteristics of spatial expansion varied in the four countries. In China, the cropland mainly expanded to the border and hilly areas, and the same applied to India. In the United States, the cropland expanded widely into the mid-west because of the western exploration movement. In Brazil, the cropland mainly expanded to north and west because of the national development policies, but the cultivation intensity of south and southeastern Brazil also increased. Different driving forces were observed in the four countries. Population growth was the fundamental driving factor for China and India, while financial issues were the root causes of change in the United States and Brazil. With respect to the development of agricultural technology, intensive and meticulous farming was employed in China and India, while in the United States and Brazil, mechanization was the major means to improve productive efficiency in the past century.

关 键 词：耕地 驱动力 区域比较 过去300年 中国 美国 巴西 印度 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]