长江三角洲高影响天气演变特征及成因分析  

Characteristics and Causes of High-Impact Weathers in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：史军[1] 陈伯民[1] 穆海振[1] 梁萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《高原气象》2015年第1期173-182,共10页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2012043;1212117);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA05090204);国家自然科学基金项目(40901031;41001283)

摘　　要：利用1959 2010年长江三角洲国家基本/基准气象站资料以及大气环流资料和区域土地利用变化资料,分析了长江三角洲高影响天气的变化特征及其对大气环流系统变化和区域城市化、土地利用变化的响应。结果表明,1959 2010年间,长江三角洲低温、雷暴、大风、大雾和降雪日数均显著减少,而高温和暴雨日数的变化趋势在统计上不显著;降雪、大雾、雷暴和低温日数发生了减少突变,而高温和暴雨日数发生了增多突变。在空间上,雷暴和大风日数在整个长江三角洲显著减少,低温日数在北部和中部地区显著减少,降雪日数在东部和南部地区显著减少,高温日数仅在江苏南通、上海、杭州湾地区以及浙江东部显著增加。52年间西太平洋副热带高压和北半球环状模(或北极涛动)增强,而北半球极涡及欧亚经向环流减弱,大气环流系统的综合作用导致长江三角洲大风、低温和降雪日数减少和高温日数增加。区域城市化和土地利用变化也在一定程度上导致长江三角洲高温日数增加和大雾、大风日数减少。Based on the observed data from 32 meteorological stations,atmospheric circulation data and regional land use data,the evolution characteristics of high- impact weathers and the impacts of atmospheric circulation and regional urbanization and land use on them w ere analyzed. The results indicate that from 1959 to 2010,the decrease of low temperature,thunderstorm,strong w ind,fog,snow fall and tornado days are all statistically significant,and the increase of high temperature and rainstorm days are statistically insignificant in the Yangtze River Delta. M eanw hile,the snow fall,fog,thunderstorm and low temperature had one decreased climatic jump change,but the high temperature and rainstorm days had one increased climatic jump change. Spatially,thunderstorm and strong wind days have decreased significantly in the w hole Yangtze River Delta. Low temperature days have decreased significantly in the northern and middle parts,and snow fall days have decreased significantly in the eastern and southern parts of the Yangtze River Delta. High temperature days have increased significantly only in Nantong,Shanghai,Hangzhou Bay area and the eastern parts of Zhejiang. The spatial trend of rainstorm and tornado days is insignificant in the w hole region,and the trend of fog days is more local. In the past 52 years,w estern Pacific subtropical high and northern hemisphere annular mode or arctic oscillation has increased,and polar vortex in northern hemisphere and Eurasian meridional circulation has decreased. The combined action from these atmospheric circulation systems has result in the decrease of strong w ind,low temperature and snow-fall days and the increase of high temperature days in the Yangtze River Delta. Urbanization and land use change have also resulted in the increase of high temperature days and the decrease of fog and strong wind days to some extent in the Yangtze River Delta.

关 键 词：高影响天气 演变特征 大气环流 城市化 长江三角洲 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]