玉溪空气负氧离子预测模型的建立  

Forecast Model Establishment of Air Negative Oxygenion in Yuxi

作　　者：王宝 解福燕 张自祥 刘春学[2] 

机构地区：[1]玉溪市气象局,玉溪653100 [2]云南财经大学城市管理与资源环境学院,昆明650221

出　　处：《高原气象》2015年第1期251-257,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40902058);云南省玉溪市重点科技项目"玉溪市大气负氧离子监测预报及信息发布系统开发"

摘　　要：利用玉溪市九县区14台空气负氧离子自动测报系统实时观测数据和同步气象要素观测资料,使用相关分析、回归分析等方法,分析了影响空气中负氧离子浓度的主要气象因子,以及影响因子与空气负氧离子浓度的关系,并建立预测模型。结果表明,玉溪市空气负氧离子浓度年变化、季节变化与各气象因子之间无显著的相关关系。影响玉溪空气负氧离子浓度日变化的主要气象因子为空气相对湿度和空气温度。当空气温度<20.4℃时,空气负氧离子浓度日变化与空气温度呈负相关关系。当空气湿度>45.6%时,空气负氧离子浓度与空气湿度呈正相关关系。通过建立负氧离子浓度预测模型,实现了负氧离子预报的定量化。经检验,预报方程效果显著,在预报业务中具有参考价值。First,the main meteorological factors imfluencing air negative oxygen ion concentration and the relationship betw een impact factors and air negative oxygenion concentration w as analysed using in-site negative oxygenions concentration observations from 14 automatic measuring system and synchronous meteorological elements observations,and using correlation analysis,regression analysis method. Then oxygen ions concentration forecasting model is established. The results show that: There w as no significant correlation betw een air negative oxygenion concentration changes and seasonal changes of meteorological factors in Yuxi,the main meteorological factors influencing diurnal variations of air negative oxygenion Yuxi are relative humidity and air temperature.When the air temperature is less than 20. 4℃,the negative oxygenion concentration diurnal variation with air temperature w as negatively correlated. How ever,w hen the air humidity is greater than 45. 6%,negative oxygenion concentration with air humidity w as positively correlated. Based on the research results,the negative oxygenion concentration prediction model w as established. The forecast effect is better and through statistics test and it could be useful for the operational service.

关 键 词：负氧离子 气象因子 预测模型 检验 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]