2001—2010年“新丝绸之路”经济带中国段城市经济时空演变  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the Cities along China Section of the " New Silk Road" in 2001-2010

作　　者：任秀芳[1] 张仲伍[1] 史雅洁[1] 高涛涛[1] 王东华[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学地理科学学院,山西临汾041000

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2015年第1期248-252,共5页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：山西师范大学自然科学基金项目(YS1104)

摘　　要：为探索"新丝绸之路"经济带的城市经济时空演变规律,采用主成分分析法对经济带内27个中国城市2001—2010年的经济数据进行研究,得出了各城市经济发展水平的综合得分。运用传统马尔科夫链和时间马尔科夫链方法,计算出城市经济发展水平的马尔科夫链转移概率矩阵和空间转移概率矩阵,探索了城市发展的时间和空间特征。结果表明:从时间上看,"新丝绸之路"沿线的城市经济发展在10年内保持着原来的状态。从空间上看,经济带的城市经济发展存在着明显的不平衡现象,东、中部和少数西部城市的发展居于前列,其余多数西部城市经济发展滞后,尤其是天水,定西、武威、张掖等城市出现"в趋同现象"。To explore the space-time evolution law of the'New Silk Road'economic zone,we adopt the Principal Component Analysis to study the economic data of 27 cities along the road in 2001-2010 and come to the composite scores of economic development level in each city.And,by the Traditional Markov Chain and Time Markov Chain,the Markov Chain transition probability matrix and spatial transfer probability matrix of each city‘s economic level are calculated,which explores the characteristics of space and time of urban development.The results show that in the time scale,the economic development of the cities maintains to the original state in10 years;but from space,there is a clear imbalance in the development of these cities that the eastern,central and few western cities are in the forefront while the most western cities are lagging behind,especially the emergence of'вconvergence' in cities such as Tianshui,Dingxi,Wuwei,Zhangye and so on.

关 键 词：“新丝绸之路”经济带 时间演变分析 空间演变分析 в趋同 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]