中国与中亚诸国货币合作的经济基础分析——基于最优货币区成本收益模型的研究  

The Economic Foundations of Monetary Cooperation between China and Central Asian Countries——Based on the Benefit-Cost Model of Optimal Currency Areas

作　　者：张劲波[1] 张伟进[1] 张江洋[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《经济经纬》2015年第1期43-49,共7页Economic Survey

基　　金：西安交通大学"211工程"三期"管制经济学"资助项目(23071072)

摘　　要：笔者着重分析了中国、俄罗斯以及中亚6国的货币一体化发展,并以卢布为参照对象,判断人民币成为该地区锚货币的可行性。最优货币区理论是探讨某个地区货币一体化程度的主要理论依据,笔者以该理论的最新研究成果DMP模型作为理论创新的基础,简化DMP模型为一个静态的两国模型,新模型从大国和小国两个角度更好地诠释了组建最优货币区的成本与收益。在新模型的基础上,笔者以名义汇率的变动、通货膨胀率以及实际经济周期的相关性为实证指标,对中国与其他7个国家进行了计量检定,以期透彻地分析该地区现阶段货币一体化的程度,为人民币在该地区的推广提供有益的政策建议。This paper analyzed the development of monetary integration about China,Russia and 6 central Asian countries. Moreover,it also analyzed the feasibility of RMB that becoming the regional anchor currency comparing with Ruble. As we all known,OCA theory is the main theoretical foundation that investigate the degree of monetary integration in a region. In this paper we simplified DMP model into a static new model,which is the new achievement of OCA theory. By this new model we interpreted the costs and benefits of optimal currency area from both big country and small country's perspective. Based on the new model,we treated the change rate about nominal exchange rate,inflation and the correlation of the real business cycle as the empirical indicators in order to measure the economic situation about China and the seven other countries. Based on the thorough analysis about the degree of monetary integration about China,Russia and 6 central Asian countries,this paper provided economic foundation for the policy decision of RMB's regionalization.

关 键 词：最优货币区 成本收益 实际经济周期 通货膨胀 财政支出比率 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学] F224