1995-2012年中国突发性环境污染事件时空演化特征及影响因素  

Spatiotemporal variability of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China, 1995-2012

作　　者：丁镭[1] 黄亚林[2] 刘云浪[1] 刘超[2] 程胜高 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2015年第6期749-760,共12页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70473072);湖北省环保科技课题专项(2012HB03)

摘　　要：利用ESDA空间统计分析方法和Matlab空间面板计量模型,对1995-2012年中国各地区发生的环境污染事件的时空演化特征和影响因素进行分析。结果表明:环境污染事件呈先动态增长后逐渐下降的趋势,水污染和大气污染事件是主要事故类型;环境污染事件发生的高频风险区域亦在逐渐减少,东南沿海及四川、湖南等中西部区仍有局部集聚的态势;1995-2000年中国的环境污染事件总体呈随机分布状态,2001年后则开始呈现集聚的特征;Moran散点图表明,局部的空间集聚先增强后减弱,环境污染事件近年来集中在泛长三角地区,高高地区为江浙沪;环境污染事件的重心转移方向主要为西南和东北,两个快速转移时期分别为1998-2001和2004-2007年,这与区域的产业转移和高负荷的污染排放压力有关;环境污染事件的发生与污染物的达标排放和控制、经济发展阶段及环境治理投入、环境监管能力、空间效应等因素有关。空间效应主要体现在空间邻近效应和空间溢出效应。未来应注重环境污染事故的区域联防联控,制定若干跨界污染事故的应急响应联动机制及环境污染区域联防联控机制。Understanding the complexity of spatiotemporal variations of sudden environmental pollution incidents and quantifying the contribution of their driving factors are important for effective environmental management in China. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China for the period of 1995-2012 based on the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA) and Spatial Econometric Panel Model. The results indicate that: the frequency of environmental pollution incidents was gradually declining after the initial fluctuating growth and the high-frequency areas were mainly concentrated in eastern and southwestern China; ESDA analysis revealed that China's environmental pollution incidents were random distributed from 1995 to 2000 and agglomerated after 2001; in recent years the high-frequency area focused on the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region; the high-frequency center moved rapidly in1998-2001 and 2004-2007 as a consequence of the regional industrial transfer and high pollution discharge pressure, toward southwest and northeast. Environmental pollution incident was different from pollutant emissions and is not an inevitable outcome of economic development. It is mainly related to the level of pollution control,government environmental supervision ability, spatial effect, and other factors. As one of the most important factors influencing environmental pollution incidents, spatial effect mainly included the spatial proximity effect and spillover effect. In order to control environmental pollution incidents effectively, the government should formulate joint transboundary pollution incidents emergency response mechanisms within regions based on regional pollution diffusion and transfer.

关 键 词：突发性环境污染事件 探索性空间分析方法 时空演化特征 空间效应 中国 

分 类 号：X507[环境科学与工程—环境工程]