东北区耕地利用系统安全格局模拟及其阈值的确定  

Pattern simulation and the determination of security threshold of cultivated land use system security in Northeast China

作　　者：宋戈[1,2] 王越[1] 赵可[1] 周春凤[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学土地管理研究所,沈阳110819 [2]东北农业大学资源与环境学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《地理研究》2015年第3期555-566,共12页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071346);教育部博士学科点基金博导类(20112325110007);中央高校基本科研业务费(N130714001);辽宁省教育厅项目(W2014048)

摘　　要：耕地利用系统安全是保护耕地健康和保障粮食安全的基础。以东北区黑龙江省巴彦县为研究区,运用Matlab编程,应用改进的神经网络模式识别模型,模拟研究区2016年和2021年耕地利用系统安全格局。基于突变理论,采用蝴蝶突变模型确定耕地利用系统安全阈值范围。结果表明:1影响耕地利用系统安全的空间因子,在一定程度上对研究区耕地利用系统安全格局的演变产生极大的影响;各类土地利用类型的数量增减及空间分布均会对耕地利用系统安全格局的变化产生一定影响。2 1976-2011年,耕地利用系统安全格局发生了显著变化,按照当前发展状况,2011-2021年,耕地面积和建设用地面积的变化呈现互反性,建设用地及其他农用地的增加均以牺牲耕地为代价,未达到保护耕地的目的。3耕地利用系统安全状态划分为安全状态、临界状态和危险状态三种;安全状态阈值范围为[-1,-0.2),临界状态阈值范围为[-0.2,0.2),危险状态阈值范围为[0.2,1]。4按照当前的发展态势,若不采取适当措施,耕地利用系统安全将向危险状态突变,耕地利用系统安全问题日益严峻。The security of cultivated land use system is the foundation for protecting the health of cultivated land and guaranteeing food supply security. This paper took Bayan County, which is located in Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China, as the study area. We forecasted the security pattern of cultivated land use system in 2016 and 2021 by the improved neural network pattern recognition model in Matlab. Meanwhile, according to the catastrophe theory, we determined the threshold of it by butterfly model. The conclusions included four points. Firstly,the spatial factors of the security pattern of cultivated land use system, to a certain extent, had great influence on the evolution of regional cultivated land use system security pattern. Both the spatial distribution and the scale change of each kind of land use pattern would have certain impact on the pattern. Secondly, cultivated land use system security pattern underwent a significant transition from 1976 to 2011. According to current development status, from 2011 to2021, the changes of cultivated land and construction land present reciprocity, the expansion of construction land and other types of agricultural land were all at the cost of the decrease of cultivated land. The task to protect cultivated land had not been performed. Thirdly, cultivated land use system security status was divided into three categories: safe state, critical state and dangerous state. The thresholds of the safe state, critical state, and dangerous state range from-1 to- 0.2,- 0.2 to 0.2, and 0.2 to 1, respectively. Generally, the current cultivated land use system security pattern of the study area tends to be dangerous. Therefore the problem of cultivated land use system security would become more and more serious if we do not take concrete measures to prevent the worsening trend.

关 键 词：耕地利用系统 格局模拟 安全阈值 东北区 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济] F224