环渤海地区港口与城市关系的动态测度及驱动模式研究  

Research on dynamic measurement and driving mode of harbour-city relationship in the Bohai Rim in China

作　　者：郭建科[1] 杜小飞[1] 孙才志[1] 王泽宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,大连116029

出　　处：《地理研究》2015年第4期740-750,共11页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101114;41301129);国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDB131);辽宁省创新团队项目(WT2014005)

摘　　要：港城交互作用是港口城市形成、演化并实现可持续发展的关键因素,因此,如何测定港城关系并从中揭示港城交互作用的模式是港口城市研究的一个难点问题。一直以来,港城关系中港口功能与城市功能定量分析方法以及港城互动关联机制的研究比较薄弱。在RCI基础上,提出DCI的概念、内涵及其算法,并以此为基础,对环渤海地区主要海港城市的港城关系状况及DCI值动态变化趋势进行定量测度,并运用脉冲响应函数对港城驱动模式进行系统分析,揭示不同港口城市在港城相互作用方面的具体差别与联系,丰富地理学对于港城关系内在机理的认识。结果显示:环渤海地区12个海港城市港城关系状况可以分为港口驱动型、城市驱动型和港城稳定型三类;变动趋势可以分为持续上升型、持续下降型及波动型三类;港城交互作用机制及稳定性存在明显差别。港城关系的强弱或倾向性与港口或城市规模没有直接关系,而是与港口或城市发展阶段、港口与腹地的关系等深层次问题密切相关。Harbour-city interaction plays a major part in the formation, evaluation and sustainable development of a harbour city. Therefore, how to measure the relationship between harbour and city and to reveal the pattern of interaction between harbour and city is a difficult problem in the area of the study on the harbour city. For a long time, not only the study about the quantitative analysis method which was designed for analyzing the function of harbour and city is relatively weak, but also the research on connection mechanism of harbour city interaction can not obtain a satisfactory conclusion. On the basis of RCI(Relative Concentration Index), the conception, connotation and algorithm of DCI(Dynamic Concentration Index) were put forward, furthermore the interaction between harbour and city and changing tendency mainly in three periods of 1997-2001, 2002-2006 and 2007-2011 for the major harbor cities in the Bohai Rim were quantitatively measured. The main port cities in this region consisted of Rizhao, Cangzhou, Yingkou, Qinhuangdao, Dandong, Tangshan, Jinzhou, Yantai, Qingdao, Dalian, Weihai and Tianjin. At last the driving mode of harbour city was systematically analysed by using impulse response function based on VAR(Vector Auto regression) model. The results clearly showed that the status of interaction between harbour and city of 12 harbor cities in the Bohai Rim can be accurately divided into three types: harbor driven pattern(Rizhao, Cangzhou, Yingkou, Qinhuangdao, Dandong, Tangshan and Jinzhou); city driven pattern(Qingdao,Dalian, Weihai and Tianjin four harbour cities) and harbor-city balance driven pattern(Yantai).What's more, the changing tendency can be devided into three types(continual rise, continual decline and fluctuation). According to the DCI, the relationship between harbour and city was analysed based on impulse response theory. Afterwards, the mode of interaction of different relationships between harbor and city were divided as well as that of driving mechanism and driving factors. In the end

关 键 词：港城关系 DCI模型 脉冲响应分析 驱动模式 环渤海地区 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F552.7