中国与俄罗斯及中亚地区的贸易格局分析  

A study on trade pattern of China with Russia and Central Asia

作　　者：公丕萍 宋周莺[1,2] 刘卫东[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理研究》2015年第5期812-824,共13页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371006);中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-06-02)

摘　　要：作为上海合作组织成员国及丝绸之路经济带的重点区域,俄罗斯及中亚地区与中国经贸关系日益密切,对中国内陆开放及地缘政治安全具有重大意义。利用贸易强度指数、贸易互补性指数、出口集中指数等,对1992-2012年中国与俄罗斯及中亚地区的贸易发展历程及空间格局、进出口产品格局进行深入分析。结果显示双方贸易强度不断提升,且贸易互补性增强,同时俄罗斯及中亚出口产品种类明显增加。当前双方贸易格局呈现以下特点:俄罗斯及中亚形成了以资源类初级产品为绝对主导的出口产品结构,中国则以机械设备及纺织服装等为主;中国对其出口贸易格局是边境贸易与地区产业专业化格局叠加的结果,进口贸易格局则受边境贸易及能源需求格局的影响。As important member states of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and key areas of the Silk Road Economic Belt, Russia and Central Asia are gaining a closer and closer relationship with China, which will play a much more important role in ensuring China's geopolitical security and promoting the opening- up of Chinese inland provinces in the future.Under this background, this paper employs Trade Intensity Index, Trade Complementarity Index and Export Concentration Index to depict the dynamics of China's trade with Russia and Central Asia during 1992- 2012. Thereafter, the spatial pattern and industrial structure of China's trade with Russia and Central Asia in 2012 are studied thoroughly with special attention paid to the spatial pattern of trade in several key commodities. At last, based on the historical data of China's trade, the authors make a brief predication for the prospects of China's trade cooperation with Russia and Central Asia to the year 2020. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) China's trade intensity and trade complementarity with Russia & Central Asia have been increasing over the past 20 years. Besides, the range of commodities imported from Russia and Central Asia has been extended dramatically.(2) Primary energy and raw materials account for a large proportion in export from Russia and Central Asia to China, while the commodities exported from China to those countries are mainly composed of machinery equipments, textile and clothing.(3) The provincial structure of China's export trade to Russia and Central Asia is the result of a combination of cross- border trade and geographical specialization in China, while China's import trade from those countries is mainly affected by cross- border trade as well as spatial distribution of energy demands.(4) In 2020, the trade volume of China with Russia and Central Asia is expected to exceed 400 billion dollars, among which Turkmenistan will account for a much higher proportion. The commodity structure of China's export will be improved to some extent w

关 键 词：俄罗斯 中亚地区 贸易联系 空间格局 产品结构 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]