城镇老年人口医疗费用需求测算模型构建及应用  

The Construction and Application of Calculative Models for Urban Aged Population's Medical Expense Demand

作　　者：王立剑[1] 叶小刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,西安710049

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2015年第6期25-27,共3页Chinese Health Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(14CJY016)

摘　　要：目的:测算2015—2020年我国城镇老年人口医疗费用需求,为医疗保障制度改革提供基础数据。方法:运用队列要素法预测2015—2020年城镇老年人口数,运用精算建模法测算医疗费用需求。结果:2015—2020年,我国城镇老年人口医疗费用需求将从3 754.14亿元增长到7 151.47亿元,年均递增13.76%。结论:2015—2020年我国城镇老年人口医疗费用快速增长,需要通过调整医疗保障制度、改革医疗费用计算办法及优化医疗资源配置方式等予以应对。Objective:To estimate the medical expense demand of China urban aged population from 2015 to 2020, so as to pro-vide basic data for medical insurance system reform.Methods:Cohort-component method was used to predict 2015—2020 urban el-derly population and the actuarial modeling method was used to estimate the medical expense demand.Results:From 2015 to 2020,the medical expense demand of China urban aged population would increase from 375.414 billion yuan to 715.147 billion yuan at anannual increase of 13.76%.Conclusion:Medical expense of urban aged population would gain rapid growth from 2015 to 2020. Mea-sures must be taken, such as, adjusting medical insurance system, reforming medical expense calculation method, optimizing alloca-tion of medical resource and so on.

关 键 词：城镇老年人口 医疗费用 队列要素法 精算建模法 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]