甘肃省气温与降水变化趋势及其对主要流域径流量的影响  

Climate Change and Its Significance on the Runoff of Major Rivers in Gansu,China from 1961 to 2011

作　　者：花婷[1] 王训明[2,1] 郎丽丽[2] 张彩霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所中国科学院沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2015年第3期744-752,共9页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(1213007)

摘　　要：基于气温和降水格点资料及水文站年径流量数据,对甘肃省不同区域气候变化趋势及其与径流量的关系进行了分析。结果显示:1961—2011年,甘肃省大部地区气温呈显著升高趋势(p<0.05),而降水量则在乌鞘岭东西两侧地区存在明显的反向变化趋势。气温和降水的变化趋势对不同区域径流量起不同作用。过去51年来,在乌鞘岭以西地区,受河源区降水量增加的影响,黑河与疏勒河流域径流量有增加趋势;在乌鞘岭以东地区,由于降水量减少及气温升高,区域河流径流量以减少趋势为主。虽然气温和降水对径流量均有影响,但降水与径流量的关系更为密切。然而从长时间尺度来看,虽然甘肃省区域平均降水量无明显减少趋势,但径流量仍呈现减少趋势,可能与气温持续上升趋势带来的蒸发增强、水分损耗增加等因素有关。By employing grid data and observed records,the temperature and precipitation trends and their significances on runoff of rivers originated in most regions of Gansu Province were discussed.Trend analyses show that from 1961 to 2011,most of the study area experienced significant(p<0.05)increases in temperature,while there were opposing trends for precipitation in regions to the east and west of Wushaoling Mountain.Temperature and precipitation trends played different roles on the runoff among each subregions.Over the past five decades,due to the significant increases of precipitation,the Heihe River and Shulehe River originated in the west of Wushaoling Mountain has experienced significant increase in runoff;while due to the significant decrease in precipitation and temperature rise occurred in their drainage basins,the other rivers suffered from decreased runoff.In the whole regions,correlation analyses show that the runoff of rivers is more closely related with precipitation(R=0.735,p<0.0005)than that of temperature(R=-0.541,p<0.0005).At a large time scale,owing to the enhancements of evaporation motivated by temperature rise,there is an obvious decreasing trend in runoff of rivers originated in Gansu Province.

关 键 词：干旱区 气候变化 径流量 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]