新常态下的中国潜在增长率:政策共识与理论分歧  

China's Potential Growth Rate under the New Normal:Policy Consensus and Theoretical Disparities

作　　者：付敏杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100836

出　　处：《河北学刊》2015年第2期104-112,共9页Hebei Academic Journal

基　　金：2012年度国家社会科学基金青年项目<政府行为与中国经济增长:比较经济发展视角的解读>(12CJL027);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目<加快经济结构调整与促进经济自主协调发展研究>(12&ZD084)

摘　　要：当前,经济学界对于中国经济的潜在增长率判断存在巨大分歧。关于中国经济增速下滑的观点分为"周期性下滑"与"趋势性减速"两派,前者以象牙塔学者为主,对理论化研究有偏爱,代表性观点是"国际环境论"、"动力转换论"和"调控紧缩论";后者以政策研究人员为代表,侧重经验研究,代表性观点是"减速节点论"、"结构性减速论""发展机制转换论"。本文认为,中国经济的基本面和国际环境都已经发生根本改变,前者典型事实是劳动力市场转折和产业结构转变,后者典型代表是世界主要组织的增长趋势预测、公众未来预期的恶化和对于中国与世界不同关系的认知,随着国际经济增长步入增速更低的"青铜时代",中国经济增速将不可避免出现下滑。Although there have already been the consensus that current Chinese economy has gradually entered the'new normal'on the policy side,there are disparities in economists' theoretical circle. The point of view on the current slowdown in China's economic growth is divided into 'cyclical downturn'and 'deceleration'; the former mainly comes from the ‘ivory tower'which prefers for theoretical research,representative views are 'International Environment Hypothesis','Growth Momentum Conversion Hypothesis',and 'Policy Contraction Hypothesis'; the latter are proposed by policy researchers focusing on empirical research,representative views are 'Deceleration Window Hypothesis','Structural Deceleration Hypothesis'and'Development Mechanism Conversion Hypothesis'. This paper argues that the fundamentals of China's economy and its international environment has undergone vital changes. On the fundamentals,the labor market undergone transition and the industrial structure dramatically transformed. On the international environment,the major world organization forecasts that the global growth trends changed,the expectation of the public deteriorated and the relationship between China and the rest of the world transformed,the world economic growth entered 'bronze age'instead of the 'golden age',China's economic growth rate will inevitably decline.

关 键 词：新常态 中国经济 潜在增长率 周期性下滑 趋势性减速 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]