“节俭的悖论”与财政支出转向  

“Paradox of Thrift”and Fiscal Expenditure Shift

作　　者：靳珂[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]中国人民银行郑州中支支行,河南郑州450040

出　　处：《经济经纬》2015年第3期155-160,共6页Economic Survey

摘　　要：笔者通过MPLAN系统,以餐饮业收入减少额为切入点,就"八项规定"对宏观经济的影响进行模拟分析。分析结果表明:"八项规定"的确会在一定程度上引发"蜜蜂的寓言"所描绘的由节俭带来的经济效应,如果能够成功进行有针对性的财政支出转向,有效率地使用节省下来的财政资金转投其他产业,会对宏观经济产生新的正效应。因此,应在"八项规定"之后基于政策目标及各产业的不同性质进行有针对性的资金投入,以消除"节俭的悖论",并促进宏观经济的健康平稳运行。With IMPLAN model applied effectively,regarding catering industry as a breakthrough point,the modeling analysis is conducted in the entire influences from'Eight Regulations'on macro-economy. The analytic result indicates that: to some extent,'Eight Regulations'will have some negative macroeconomic impact due to the thrift depicted by'the Fable of the Bees'. But if the successful and targeted fiscal expenditure shift would be fulfilled and the saved fiscal capital could effectively switch to other industries,the new positive effects on macro-economy would emerge. Therefore,after 'Eight Regulations'is introduced formally,the targeted capital input should be implemented,based on policy purposes and the different industrial natures,so as to eliminate the 'Paradox of Thrift'and promote the healthy and stable macroeconomic development.

关 键 词：节俭悖论 财政支出转向 IMPLAN系统 

分 类 号：F719.3[经济管理—产业经济] F812.45