2015-2040年全球铁矿石供需趋势分析  

Global iron ore supply and demand trend analysis,2015-2040

作　　者：张艳飞[1,2] 陈其慎[1,2] 于汶加[1,2] 柳群义[1,2] 李颖[1,2] 谭化川 

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京100037 [2]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037 [3]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第5期921-932,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国土资源部地质调查项目:"矿产资源勘查开发格局及对策研究"(12120114093501);"中国矿产资源配置支持平台建设与动态跟踪部署"(12120113091800);"我国主要矿产资源对2020年;2025年与2030年国民经济建设保障程度研究"(12120113079500)

摘　　要：全球铁矿石市场已处于供需反转、供过于求的新阶段,明晰全球铁矿石供需格局走向对我国铁矿石及钢铁产业发展具有指导意义。1将全球铁矿石供需历史划分为缓慢增长(1900-1945年)、稳定增长(1945-1970年)、增速放缓(1970-2000年)和快速增长(2000年以来)四个阶段,指出全球钢铁消费中心随工业中心转移、铁矿石供应格局随需求格局变化、而供需格局变化决定铁矿石长期价格的基本规律。2运用钢铁需求与经济发展的"S"形规律,预测了未来全球及主要国家粗钢需求,结果显示:总体上,未来30年全球粗钢需求仍呈上升趋势,但增速将明显放缓;亚洲作为全球粗钢消费中心地位将进一步增强;中国粗钢需求已到顶点,未来将逐步下降,全球粗钢消费的主要增长将来自印度和东盟地区。3进一步分析全球铁矿石供需认为:未来,全球铁矿石需求增速比粗钢更为缓慢,而供应仍将持续增长,未来几年全球市场将严重供过于求,铁矿石价格受供需形势变化影响,呈现先快速下降后趋于平稳的趋势。The global iron ore market has entered a new phase of oversupply and short supply over the past ten years has ended. Recognizing the situation and clarifying future trends in global iron ore supply and demand will guide China's iron ore and steel industry. In this article we review global iron ore supply and demand since 1900 and divide it into four stages:slow growth(1900-1945),steady growth(1945-1970),slowdown(1970-2000) and rapid growth(since2000). According to history,we realized the basic laws that global steel consumption centers shift with industrial center shifting,supply situation changes with demand changes,and supply and demand trends determine iron ore price changes in the long-term. On the basis of an S shaped law between steel demand and economic development,we forecast crude steel future demand globally.We found that overall global crude steel consumption is still increasing but at a lower rate in the next 30 years. Asia's position as a center of global crude steel consumption will be further enhanced. China's crude steel demand has peaked and in the future will decline gradually;while the main growth point of global crude steel consumption will be India and the ASEAN region. We further studied global iron ore demand and supply and realized that future global iron ore demand is slower than for crude steel. Supply will continue to grow and serious global oversupply will be inevitable. Therefore,iron ore prices will decline rapidly and then stabilize according to changes in supply and demand.

关 键 词：铁矿石 粗钢 需求预测 供需趋势 全球 

分 类 号：F416.1[经济管理—产业经济]