化肥消费规律及中国化肥矿产需求趋势预测  

Fertilizer consumption rule and prediction of China's fertilizer-related resource minerals demand

作　　者：张艳[1,2] 于汶加[1,2] 陈其慎[1,2,3] 刘艳飞[4] 张艳松[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所国土资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京100037 [2]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037 [3]中国工程院,北京100088 [4]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第5期977-987,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：国土资源部地质调查项目:"矿产资源勘查开发格局及对策研究"(12120114093501);"中国战略性矿产安全评价与支持系统建设"(12120114052901)

摘　　要：磷、硫、钾盐等矿产资源主要用于化肥的生产,是关乎我国农业和国民经济发展的重要物质基础。然而随着我国化肥产量与消费量的逐年增加,磷、硫、钾盐等矿产资源的可持续性以及在化肥施用过程中对环境的负面影响日益受到关注。在此背景之下,本文通过对欧美日韩等发达国家化肥消费历史分析,首次运用单位耕地面积化肥施用量作为研究指标,总结剖析了发达国家化肥消费历史轨迹变化及其动因,揭示了不同情形下,化肥消费规律:即理想状态下,单位耕地面积化肥施用量随着经济的发展呈"S"形规律变化;在化肥施用初期未考虑环境因素的情形下,单位耕地面积化肥施用量随着经济的发展呈倒"U"形规律变化。总结得出北美"理想模式"、西欧模式和日韩模式三种化肥消费变化的模式。以发达国家为借鉴,结合中国资源环境实际情况,预测了我国化肥及磷、硫、钾盐矿产未来需求趋势,结果表明中国磷肥和氮肥消费已到达峰值,未来将缓慢下降,相应的磷、硫资源需求也将到达峰值;钾肥在国际价格没有显著变化的情况下,未来需求将维持目前水平。Phosphate,sulfide and potash,mainly used in fertilizer production,are important materials in China's agricultural production and economic development. However,as China's fertilizer production and consumption have increased,so have concerns regarding sustainability and negative impacts on the environment. Therefore,we employed fertilizer intensity(fertilizer use per unit area)to analyze changes in fertilizer use in countries based on historical fertilizer consumption data for the EU,USA,Japan,and Korea. We also summarized the historical trajectory of fertilizer consumption in these countries as well as their motives. We revealed fertilizer consumption patterns under different circumstances whereby fertilizer intensity shows an S trajectory with increasing per capita income under ideal conditions. Without considering environmental factors and the initial phases of fertilizer application,fertilizer intensity shows an inverted U trajectory. Developed countries showed a North American‘ideal mode',Western Europe mode,and Japan and South Korean mode. Referencing developed countries' fertilizer use,and China's resource and environmental reality,we predict future trends in China's demand for fertilizers and phosphorus,sulfur,and potash minerals. The results indicate that phosphate and nitrogen consumption have peaked and will slowly decline in the future;demand for phosphate and sulfur have begun to peak. Potash future demand will not change much if prices remain at current levels. Our conclusions will provide a scientific reference for the rational planning of mineral fertilizer use in order to protect the security of supply under resource and environmental constraints.

关 键 词：化肥矿产 消费规律 需求预测 中国 

分 类 号：F416.72[经济管理—产业经济] F426.72