全球原镁需求预测及中国合理产能分析  

Analysis and forecast of world primary magnesium demand and reasonable productivity for China

作　　者：刘艳飞[1] 张艳[2,3] 于汶加[2,3] 刘璇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [2]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京100037 [3]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第5期1047-1058,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国土资源部地质调查项目:"中国战略性矿产安全评价与支持系统建设"(12120114052901);"矿产资源勘查开发格局及对策研究"(12120114093501)

摘　　要：镁被誉为"21世纪最具开发和应用潜力的绿色工程材料",是重要的战略性金属材料。本文运用部门分析预测法,对中国、北美、欧洲、日本等全球主要国家和地区原镁消费历史和未来原镁需求进行了系统分析和预测,结果表明:未来15年全球原镁消费将持续增长,2020年、2030年需求量将分别达到234万t和303万t;较目前增加1.87倍和2.72倍;亚太地区将成为全球原镁需求的主要地区,2020年和2030年其需求全球占比将分别达到58.38%和68.97%;中国将成为未来全球原镁需求的拉动者,2013-2030年全球原镁需求增量的78.50%将来自中国。以全球需求为基础,结合全球一次和二次资源供应现状及未来趋势,针对国内产能严重过剩的问题,提出2020年和2030年,中国原镁合理产能分别为107~130万t和203~247万t。建议国家应提高行业准入标准,淘汰落后产能,提高行业集中度;同时加大研发力度,提高中国原镁生产和利用领域的全球竞争力。Magnesium is known as the‘green engineering material'of the 21 st century and has the most potential for the development and application of metallic materials. Here,we use department analysis,system analysis and prediction for the consumption of original magnesium and future primary magnesium demand in China,North America,Europe and Japan. We found that in the next15 years world primary magnesium consumption will continue to grow;in 2020 and 2030 the demand will reach 2340 thousand tons and 3030 thousand tons,respectively,an increase of 1.87 times and 2.72 times. The Asia Pacific region will become a major area of world primary magnesium demand in 2020 and 2030,accounting for 58.38% and 68.97% respectively. China will become a driving force for future primary magnesium demand,and from 2013-2030 78.50% of world primary magnesium incremental demand will come from China. With world demand as the basis,combined with one and two times resource supply status,future trends,and the domestic cover capacity problem,China primary magnesium reasonable production will be 1070-1300 thousand tons and 2030-2470 thousand tons in 2020 and 2030. We suggest that the state should improve industry access standards,eliminate backward production capacity and improve industry concentration. At the same time,China should increase research and development efforts,improve primary magnesium production and application fields of global competitiveness.

关 键 词：镁 需求 合理产能 中国 全球 

分 类 号：F416.32[经济管理—产业经济]