生活领域能源消费的锁定效应研究——以上海市为例  

The lock-in effect of residential energy consumption:A case study in Shanghai City

作　　者：高然[1] 张真[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学环境科学与工程系,上海200433

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第4期733-743,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：复旦大学复旦-丁铎尔中心生态环境与人文社科交叉研究项目(EZH1829007/017);国家社会科学基金项目(09AZD048)

摘　　要：当前,在全社会大力倡导节能行为,节能家电已成为市场主流的背景下,我国人均生活能源消费量却逐年攀升。本文认为,这源于生活领域能源消费的锁定效应,本文从住房面积和收入水平两方面分别探究上述锁定效应的形成过程。基于2013年《上海市居民生活碳消费状况调查数据》,本文首先选取两类面积水平相同的住房类型(类型1:别墅、联排、大平层,类型5:农民独栋别墅),通过多元线性回归分析筛选出显著耗能设备,之后运用逻辑斯蒂回归模型探究拥有上述筛选出的耗能设备的概率与居民收入水平的关系,进而分析收入水平对能源消费的锁定效应;类似地,本文选取两类收入水平相同的住房类型(类型1:别墅、联排、大平层,类型2:高层/小高层),探究住房面积对能源消费的锁定效应。结果表明,收入水平和居住面积影响居民家庭购置、使用功能类似但能耗水平不同的电器,从而形成不同的生活样式,导致居住能耗差异。Promoting energy conservation and emission reduction is essential to sustainable energy development in China. With living standards improving and energy conservation and emission reduction processing,reducing residential energy consumption will become an important field.Despite the fact that society is advocating energy-saving behavior and energy-efficient appliances are mainstream,residential energy consumption per capita in China has been increasing. Here,we argue that limitation of the energy-saving effects of these appliances and behaviors stems from the lock-in effect of residential energy consumption. In order to explore the formation process of the lock-in effect we selected relevant data for two housing types with the same level of housing area(Type 1 = villa,townhouse,ohira layer;Type 5 = farmer's detached villa)from the Survey of Shanghai Residents' Carbon Consumption(2013)to study the impact of income on residential energy consumption. We selected relevant data for two housing types with the same level of income(Type 1 = villa,townhouse,ohira layer;Type 2 = high-rise,small high-rise)to analyze the impact of housing area on residential energy consumption. Results indicated that housing area and income lock residential energy consumption at a high level through the purchase and use of appliances consuming large amounts of electricity. Based on our analysis,we discuss three suggestions including policy interventions,value impacts and economic incentives in order to provide recommendations on energy conservation in China.

关 键 词：锁定效应 逻辑斯蒂回归 多元线性回归 生活能源消费 上海市 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]