煤炭资源税改革影响效应及其情景模拟研究  

Scenario simulation on price conduction effects of China's coal resource tax reform

作　　者：王迪[1,2] 聂锐[1] 张言方[1] 刘玥[1] 芈凌云[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学环境科学与工程博士后流动站,徐州221116

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第4期783-791,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073157;71273259;71403267;71473250);教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(11YJCZH125;14YJCZH144);中国博士后科学基金项目(2014M551683);江苏省哲学社会科学研究基地项目(13JDB021);江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2014SJD421);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2014WA02)

摘　　要：煤炭资源税改革是调节煤炭资源的级差收入、实现资源有效配置的合理手段。基于价格传导复杂网络模型,文章对煤炭资源税税率设定的合理范围及其影响效应进行定量分析,研究发现:①基于成本推动型价格传导机制而建立的价格传导复杂网络模型具有较高的适用性,能够较好地模拟我国煤炭资源税-价联动政策的影响效应;②煤炭资源税-价联动政策对下游电力、冶金、石化等资源消耗型产业的影响相对较大,这类关键产业节点可视为煤炭资源税价联动政策影响效应的重点监测部门;③不同税率情景下,煤炭资源税-价联动政策的传导效应具有情景差异,但总体上随其税率的波动而呈同向变化,CPI变动随着煤炭资源税率的提高而增长;④煤炭资源税计征形式及其税率水平将影响煤炭价格波动,进而通过价格传导机制作用宏观经济总体运行,从价税税率7%的水平下,其对宏观经济运行的影响可以接受,CPI的变动幅度约为0.92%。为保障煤炭资源税改革的顺利推进,应均衡考虑地方政府与煤炭企业的合理收益,在当前煤价持续下滑阶段政府应通过清费正税等手段放权让利于煤炭企业。The reform of coal resource tax is a reasonable method to adjust the differential income of coal resources and achieve efficient allocation of resources. Based on complex network modeling of price conduction and ideas from scenario analysis,we empirically analyzed the reasonable range of coal resource tax rates and its effect by means of enumeration methods. We found that on the basis of cost-push price conduction mechanisms and with a higher applicability,the complex network model of price conduction is able to simulate the impact of coal resource tax-price linkage policy. Coal resource tax-price linkage policy has a greater effect on downstream resource consumption industries such as electric power,metallurgical and petrochemical industries;these key industry nodes can be regarded as important sectors to detect the coal impact of resource tax-price linkage policy. Under different tax rate scenarios,the conduction effect of resource tax-price linkage policy has situational differences,but overall tends to vary with the fluctuation of tax rates in the same direction. The change in CPI increases with growth in coal resource tax. The taxation form and rate level of coal resource tax will influence coal price fluctuations,and will affect the overall macro economy through price conduction mechanisms. If the rate of ad valorem tax is adjusted to 7%,its impact on the overall macro economy is acceptable,and variation in CPI is about 0.92%. In order to reduce the effect of resource tax reform on the overall macro economy and carry forward reform of coal resource tax,the government should consider the reasonable profits of local governments and coal enterprises,and benefit coal enterprises by‘cleaning up fees and pushing through taxes' during the current situation whereby coal prices fall constantly.

关 键 词：煤炭 资源税 价格传导 情景模拟 复杂网络模型 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] F812.42