2013年暖季试验概述  

Overview of the Warm-Season Experiment in 2013

作　　者：张小玲[1] 林建[1] 张涛[1] 孟庆涛[1] 张润福[1] 方翀[1] 李萍阳[1] 郑永光[1] 谌芸[1] 张芳华[1] 杨波[1] 魏丽[1] 毕宝贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2015年第5期521-532,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430100);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013ZX-ZH1)共同资助

摘　　要：2013年,国家气象中心联合中国气象科学研究院、南京大学、中国科学院大气物理研究所开展暖季试验,探索业务单位与科研单位合作的新途径,以实现对业务相关研究的促进并加速有应用前景的技术向业务转化。本文介绍支持暖季试验的仿真业务环境、强天气联合会商及凝练的科学技术问题以及新技术应用测试转化结果。通过暖季试验,搭建起能对业务数据和被测试转化成果产品实时保障的仿真业务数据环境、完全仿业务定量降水预报和强对流天气预报的仿真业务分析预报交互平台以及能实时评估业务数值模式和测试模式产品的客观检验系统。定期联合会商为预报员和科学家提供了面对面的交流平台,使得科学家更加了解业务需求并通过分析研究解决部分会商中提出的科学技术问题。新技术应用测试转化试验表明:高分辨率中尺度数值模式对提升强对流和暴雨天气的预报水平有积极意义,雷达风场反演技术、卫星天气应用平台对中尺度天气的快速分析有意义。而预报员与科技成果研发人员能否密切合作是影响科技成果业务转化的重要因素。The separation between operational forecasting and research has been a serious limitation for advanced techniques to be transferred into operation.The 2013 warm-season experiment,which was carried out by National Meteorological Centre(NMC) through collaborating with Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS),Nanjing University,Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP) of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),mainly focuses on seeking a new cooperation mode between operation units and research institutions to inspire new initiatives for operationally relevant research and accelerate the transfer of promising new tools from research to operations.In this paper,the recurrence conjunctive discussion about severe weather events,the advanced techniques testing and the simulated operational environment for weather forecasting,which supports the experiment,are introduced.Based on this experiment,an operational simulation system including the real-time operational data flow and tested data flow supporting subsystem,the quantitative precipitation forecast and severe convective weather forecast platforms,the real-time model verification subsystem is built.The conjunctive discussion creates a face-to-face interview platform for forecasters and researchers,pushing forecasters to learn to address operational challenges from a more scientific perspective and researchers to understand more the operational needs and become better equipped to get over the application research problems proposed in the discussion.The advanced techniques testing shows that the high resolution mesoscale models are useful for severe convective weather and heavy rainfall operational forecasting,the radar wind retrieval technology and the satellite weather application platform are useful for quick analysis on mesoscale convective weather,and the cooperation between forecasters and researchers is the key factor for techniques to be transferred into operation.

关 键 词：暖季试验 仿真业务环境 联合会商 新技术测试 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]