2014年汛期气候预测先兆信号应用及其复杂性初探  

Preliminary Study of Precursor and Its Application in Summer Climate Prediction and Its Complexity in 2014

作　　者：孙林海[1,2,3] 宋文玲[2] 龚振淞[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [3]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044

出　　处：《气象》2015年第5期639-648,共10页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406024和GYHY201306033);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(41205039);气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2014Z04)共同资助

摘　　要：文章系统回顾了2014年汛期气候预测的主要先兆信号。其信号特征是:2014年前期赤道中东太平洋由呈正常略偏冷向偏暖状态发展,预计可能在夏季形成一次暖事件,冬季格陵兰海冰偏多、青藏高原积雪正常略偏多,这些特征对后期东亚夏季风有明显影响。通过对前期先兆信号的分析,预测了2014年我国夏季雨带位置偏北,但较2013年偏南,主要多雨区位于华北南部至江淮。从实况和预报的对比来看,夏季主雨带预测与实况有较大差异,没有预报出"北少南多"的降水分布型,但东北、华北北部、长江中游、华南西部和西南南部等地预测与实况一致。另外,热带气旋、梅雨和华北雨季的预测与实况基本一致。最后对汛期气候预测的复杂性及存在的不足进行了分析和讨论。Possible precursor of the summer climate in 2014 was reviewed.Its characteristics are that in early 2014 central and eastern equatorial Pacific had a normal but a little bit cold situation,and then developed to warm state.It was projected to have an El Nino event in the summer,the Greenland sea ice would be more in the winter,and the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau would be a bit more than normal.These features had significant effects on the East Asian summer monsoon later.By analyzing the possible effects of these precursors,summer rainfall belt in 2014 was predicted to be in the position by north,but more southerly than that of 2013.The rainfall areas are mainly located in the region from the southern part of North China to Jianghuai Area.Comparing the observation with prediction,big differences are found.The distribution pattern with more rainfall in the South and less in the North was not predicted.However,the prediction is consistent with the observation over the Northeast,North China,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the west of South China,and the south of Southwest.In addition,the prediction of tropical cyclones,Meiyu and the rainy season in North China agrees with the observation.Finally,the complexity and problems of flood season climate prediction were analyzed and discussed.

关 键 词：汛期 先兆信号 多雨带 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]