主权债务可持续性:一个文献综述  

Sovereign Debt Sustainability: A Survey

作　　者：戎梅[1] 王永中[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《金融评论》2015年第2期84-99,126,共17页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"美国主权债务可持续性与中国外汇储备管理研究"(11CGJ011)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于主权债务可持续性内涵的分析,本文对主权债务可持续性的理论评估与经验检验领域的文献作了全面梳理和深入探讨。已有文献对主权债务可持续性的理论评估大致遵循三条思路:一是债务比率法,要求债务比率不会随着时间发散;二是现值预算约束法,要求政府当前和未来支出的现值不超过当前和未来收入的现值;三是债务阈值法,要求债务负担不超出适度规模或政府耐受水平。经验检验大都沿用两种传统方法:一是依据累积债务和财政赤字(或盈余)的平稳性检验来判断债务可持续性;二是依据政府财政收支的协整关系来判断债务可持续性。Base on an analysis of the definition of sovereign debt sustainability, the paper conducts a comprehensive and deep survey of the methods of theoretical assessments and empirical tests on sovereign debt sustainability. In the perspective of theoretical assessment, there are three main approaches: the first one is debt-GDP ratio, which requires that the debt ratio should not diverge; the second one is present value budget constraint, which holds that the present value of government's current and future expenditures should not exceed that of government's current and future revenues; the final one is debt threshold, which claims that the debt burden should not succeed optimal scale or intolerance level. Empirical tests on sovereign debt sustainability heavily depend on traditional methods, such as stationary test and cointegration test.

关 键 词：主权债务可持续性 债务比率 现值预算约束 债务阈值 协整检验 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]