鄱阳湖生态经济区粮食生产空间格局变迁及驱动因素实证分析  

An Empirical Study on Regional Variation and Driving Factors of Grain Production in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone

作　　者：张利国[1] 刘芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学鄱阳湖生态经济研究院

出　　处：《鄱阳湖学刊》2015年第5期97-103,共7页Journal of Poyang Lake

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国大湖流域综合开发新模式与生物多样性保护研究:以鄱阳湖生态经济区建设为例"(12&ZD213);国家教育部哲学社会科学发展报告项目"鄱阳湖生态经济区发展报告"(13JBGP028);江西省哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目"完善我省自然资产管理制度研究"(14SKJD21);江西财经大学研究生创新基金项目"江西省粮食生产空间格局演变及区位优化研究"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：鄱阳湖生态经济区是江西省传统农业生产区,其粮食生产在江西省具有重要地位。本文基于鄱阳湖生态经济区25个县(市)2000—2013年的粮食生产数据,描述了粮食生产空间格局变迁的基本态势,测算了区域内粮食生产的空间相关性,并采用面板数据模型实证分析了粮食生产空间格局变迁的驱动因素。结果表明:鄱阳湖生态经济区25个县(市)粮食产量呈增加趋势;粮食生产空间分异明显;区域内粮食生产具有空间正相关性;耕地面积、粮食单产、复种指数、水资源丰沛程度、农民种粮积极性等指标是驱动鄱阳湖生态经济区25个县(市)粮食生产空间格局变迁的主要因素。Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, one of the traditional agricultural areas in Jiangxi Province,plays an important role in the grain production of the province. Based on the panel data of 25 counties around Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone from 2000 to 2013, this study describes the fundamental trend of regional variation in grain production, measures the spatial correlation for various grain productions and analyzes the driving factors that influence the regional changes of grain production in terms of the spatial panel model. The results show that(1)the crop output in 25 counties around Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone presents a growth trend;(2)there appears obvious spatial differentiation between regional grain productions;(3)there exists a positive spatial correlation among grain productions in the zone;(4)the major elements that influence the regional variations of grain productions are the crop acreage, the per unit area yield of grain, the index of crop rotations, and the abundance of water and the farmer' enthusiasm.

关 键 词：鄱阳湖生态经济区 粮食生产 空间格局变迁 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]