中国工资和价格下调刚性下的货币政策非对称性研究  

Downward Rigidity of Wages and Prices and Asymmetric Monetary Policy in China

作　　者：徐小君[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2015年第10期12-20,共9页Statistical Research

摘　　要：为考察货币政策的非对称性效应,本文将工资下调刚性与价格下调刚性特征构建于宏观结构模型,并利用中国宏观经济季度数据,采用模拟矩方法对上述结构模型中的参数进行估计,最后利用估计得到的参数对模型进行随机动态模拟分析。模型参数的估计结果表明,我国工资和价格的变动具有明显的下调刚性特征。基于估计得到的参数对模型的动态模拟分析说明,信贷政策、存款准备金率政策以及存贷利差政策在执行方向和力度上对经济系统产生了不同类型的非对称性效应,并且不同种类的货币政策工具对经济产生了不同的影响效果。本文的研究对我国中央银行根据经济状况选择恰当的货币政策工具,以及确定政策工具在数量上的执行力度都有参考意义。In order to investigate asymmetric effects of monetary policy,this paper incorporates the wage and price downward rigidity in the macro structure model. The paper then use perturbation method to get the second order approximation to the nonlinear model with the Chinese quarterly macroeconomic data and use simulated method of moments to estimate the model structure parameters. Finally stochastic dynamic simulation analysis is performed based on the estimated parameters. Model parameter estimation results indicate that the wage and price changes have significant downward rigidity characteristics. The dynamic simulation analysis of the model shows that the credit policy and the policies of deposit reserve rate and interest rate spread between deposit and loan have different asymmetric effects on economic system in different policy direction and intensity,and different kinds of monetary policy tools have different effects on the economy. The study can be a reference for China's central bank to choose appropriate monetary policy tools according to economic situation and to determine the quantitative execution intensity.

关 键 词：工资下调刚性 价格下调刚性 货币政策非对称性 非线性DSGE SMM估计 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]