山东省能源消费与经济增长的协整关系及能源需求预测  

The Co-integration between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth and the Forecast for Energy Demand in Shandong Province

作　　者：吴士健[1] 宋立群[1] 刘新民[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第5期789-795,共7页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金(BS2013SF019);第55批中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2014M551937);国家统计局统计科研重点项目(2010LB27;2010LB21);中国煤炭工业协会科学技术研究指导性计划项目(MTKJ2014-218);山东科技大学科研创新团队支持计划(2015TDJH103)

摘　　要：基于山东省1985~2013年间一次性能源消费与经济增长的统计数据,在平稳性检验的基础上对两者之间的内在关系进行了协整检验和误差修正模型分析发现山东省能源消费与GDP增长之间存在稳定的双向格兰杰因果关系,经济增长和能源消费之间的相互依赖性很强。构建了广义差分回归预测模型,检验了模型精度并据此对山东省能源需求进行了预测,明确了未来面临的能源约束状况。To study on the relationships of energy consumption and economic growth in Shandong Province, this paper collected the statistics data from 1985 to 2013 in Shandong Province, and took the co-integration test and error correction model analysis between them on the basis of stability test, which showed there was stable two-way Granger causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Shandong Province with strong interdependence to each other. What's more, generalized differential regression prediction model was constructed to test the model accuracy. Based on these analysis, this paper made the prediction for the energy consumption in Shandong Province to forecast energy consumption constraints we were confronted with in the near future.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整关系 需求预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F127F426.2