蕴震系统的耗散性及其自组织行为  

THE DISSIPATION AND THE SELF-ORGANIZATION BEHAVIOR OF THE SEISMOGENIC SYSTEM

作　　者：陈子林[1] 周硕愚[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局地震研究所,武昌430071

出　　处：《地壳形变与地震》1993年第1期38-47,共10页Crustal Deformation and Earthquake

摘　　要：本文首先给出了守恒系统与耗散系统的性质与运动规律和开放的耗散体系的自组织演化行为,进而给出了由大区域构造网络所组成的蕴震系统是一个开放的耗散系统的论证,并分析了该系统的自组织行为和时空演化的吸引子。以京津唐地区为例,使用单序列的重建复杂系统动力学方法(时间域)和多时间序列的复杂系统动力学分析方法(空间域),由大灰厂形变水准资料的计算得出大地震前具有减熵、降维和Lyapunov指数上升的变化趋势,由该地区12个形变台站组成的前兆场的空间分布的分析得到一个2.9维的分形分布、4～5年的可预报期限(K_1=0.0885)和一个正的Lyapunov指数(0.09864)。这表明系统的时空分布沦入一个浑沌吸引子中,具有分形结构和自组织演化行为以及临界失稳的共性。In this paper, the characters and the movement laws of conservative and dissipative dynamical system are outlined, and the self-organization evolutive behavior of open dissipative system is analyzed. It is demonstrated that the seismogenic system consisted of the large area tectonic network is one open dissipative system, and the self-organization attractors and the time-space evolutive attractors of the system are analysed. Taking the Beijing area as a example, using the method of the complex system dynamics reconstruction of single time series (time field) and the many time serieses (space field), from the calculation of the level data of Dahueichang deformation station, it is concluded that there are the tendencies of negnentropy, descenting dimension and lyapunov exponent ascenging before the large earthquake. From the analysis of the space distribution of the precursory field which consist of the 12 deformation stations in Beijing area, a 2. 9-dimension fractal distribution, 4～5 years predictable term (K_1=0.0885) and a postive lyapunov exponent (λ_1=0.09864) are gained. All these show that the time and space distribution fall into a chaos attractor and has the self-organization evolutive behavior and the common characters of the critical phonomena.

关 键 词：蕴震系统 自组织 地震 耗散 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]