信息综合集成方法在短期地震预报中的应用  

APPLICATION OF INFORMATION SYNTHESIS INTEGRATION METHOD IN SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

作　　者：李文英[1] 胡新亮[1] 张清荣[1] 平建军[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局

出　　处：《地震》1993年第6期7-14,共8页Earthquake

摘　　要：本文将地震的孕震过程视为一个复杂系统,随着孕震过程的发展,系统从平衡态向着远离平衡态方向发展,不稳定性增大,并向着失稳态接近,这时大量前兆发生发展,复杂性增加。文中应用系统科学中的信息集成方法分析前兆异常,确定异常综合判据,用统一的系统参量概率合成、信息熵、有序度等作为系统由稳态向非稳态过渡的标志。结果表明,用信息综合集成方法分析后的异常反映了孕震过程演变到短期阶段。该方法为短期地震预报提供了较为可靠的依据,具有实用化意义。This paper regarded the seismogenic process of earthquakes as a complicate system. With development of seismogenic process, the system was developed from the equibrium state towards the direction far from the equibrium state, its instability increases and approaches to the destabilized state. In this period, a number of precursors occurred and developed, the complexity increased. The paper used the information integration method in the systematic science to analyze the precursory. anomalies and determined, the comprehensive criteria for the anomalies. The probability synthesis of the united system parameters, information entropy and the ordereddegree are used as the transitional mark from steady state to non-steady state. The results show that the anomalies analyzed by using the information synthesis integration method could reflect that the seismogenic process had developed 'into the short-term stage. Therefore, this method provides a reliable basis for the short-term earthquake prediction and it is of 'practical significance.

关 键 词：地震预报 信息 综合集成法 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]