滇西北 Ms≥5级地震短临预报决策方案研究  

A DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM OF SHORT-TERM AND IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE (Ms≥5) PREDICTION

作　　者：郭绍忠 

机构地区：[1]云南省丽江地区地震局,丽江674100

出　　处：《地震研究》1993年第1期25-32,共8页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：本文在短临预报指标研究的基础上,应用模糊综合评判及震兆加权的数学模型,研究了滇西北Ms≥5.0级地震三要素的预报方法,并已全部计算机化。所得结果经1975年以来该区17次地震检验,地震强度预测准确率为88%,尤以Ms=4～6级中强震的预测能力最佳;时间预测准确率为93%,概括率为76%,起报点(发震概率阈值)为P_阈=0.53,并能计算有效预报期;地点预测准确率为88%,当P(N)>P(S)时报剑川以北有震,P(S)>P(N)时报剑川以南有震。三要素的总预测准确率为65%。所有预测方法定量性强,均能通过预报效能评分R值在97.5%置信度下的检验,效能显著。经一年多的15次预报实践,其准确率为93%,是一个具有较强实用价值的综合预报决策方案。In this paper, based on the short-term and impending prediction criteria and the mathematical model of fuzzy comprehensive judge and weighted earthquake precursor, the author has studied the method to forecast the three elements of earthquake (Ms≥5.0) in Northwestern Yunnan. And the method has been programmed and used to check the 17 earthquakes occurred in the prefecture since 1975. The checked results show that the accuracy of magnitude prediction is 88%, that of occurrence time prediction 93%, the probability 76% and the threshold 0.53. The effective time interval of earthquake occurrence can be judged. The accuracy of location prediction is 88%. If P (N) is greater than P(S), an earthquake will occur in Northern Jianchuan; while if P(S) is greater than P(N), an earthquake will occur in Southern Jianchuan. The comprehensive accuracy of the three-element prediction reaches 65%. The three methods are quantitative and able to pass the prediction effectiveness judge check (R value) with the confidence level of 95%. The 15 results of earthquake prediction indicate that the earthquake prediction decision-making system is practical and effective.

关 键 词：地震预报 震级 数学模型 滇西北 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]