民房震害预测专家评定统计模型的探讨  

A PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON STATISTICAL MODEL OF EXPERT ASSESSMENT AND ITS APPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE PREDICTION OF SINGLE STORY CIVIL BUILDINGS

作　　者：徐祥文[1] 黄崇福[2] 胡宝生[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局工程力学研究所,哈尔滨150080 [2]北京师范大学数学系,100875

出　　处：《地震研究》1993年第2期187-192,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：本文针对专家评定意见有一定伸缩性的特点,将专家意见表示为评定论域上的模糊子集,利用可能性相加原理,对专家意见进行了统计分析,得出综合性的意见。结果表明,利用伸缩性提供的丰富信息,可以较好地总结专家意见。基于几种模型的仿真可靠性分析结果,本文推荐可靠性最高的模型作为城市平房震害预测统计手段。According to the improvable character of expert assessment, the expert opinion is given a form of Fuzzy subset in assessing area, Using the principle of possible addition, a statistic analysis is made on the expert's opinion, and the comprehensive expert opinion is obtained. The results show that using abundant information supplied by the improvable character, the expert opinion can be belter summarized. Finally, a statistical procedure oE earthquake damage prediction for urban single story civil buildings is suggested.

关 键 词：住宅 震害 统计模型 专家 评定 

分 类 号：TU352.1[建筑科学—结构工程]