汾渭地震带地震活动性的初步分析  

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE SEISMICITY IN THE FENWEI SEISMIC BELT

作　　者：许俊奇[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省地震局,西安710068

出　　处：《地震研究》1993年第3期246-251,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：本文依据震中迁移、累积频度变化曲线、震级频度关系等的计算方法,对汾渭地震带的地震活动性进行了初步的分析,认为:汾渭地震带Ms≥5.5级的地震活动存在着明显的由北向南自东向西的迁移特点。目前,汾渭地震带正处于第三活跃期的后期,总的地震活动趋势是加强的。今后5～20年内,Ms>5.5级的地震,由北区迁至南区的概率为:0.22～0.64。则中区可能发生Ms=5级左右的地震或震群,南区则有发生Ms≥5.5级地震的可能性。By using the methods of epicenter migration, variation of accumulation frequency and relation between magnitude and frequency, the seismicity in the Fenwei seismic belt is analysed preliminarily. It is obtained that the earthquakes with Ms≥5.5 in the belt have an obvious characteristic of migration from north to south and from east to west. At present, the seismicity of the Fenwei seismicity belt is at the later stage of the third active period and its tendency is being strengthened.The probability of the earthquakes with Ms>5.5 which will migrate from the north area to the south area is 0.22-0.64 in the next 5 -20 years, and the central part of the belt might be hit by earthquakes with Ms = about 5.5 or swarms and the south part of belt might be hit by earthquakes with Ms≥5.5.

关 键 词：汾渭 地震带 地震活动性 震中迁移 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]