安徽省近554年旱涝演化规律和跃变现象  

On Climate Regularity and Catastrophe Phenomenon of Drought and Flood of Anhui Province for Resent 554 Years

作　　者：周后福[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥230031

出　　处：《气象》2004年第7期18-22,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：安徽省气象科技基金 (0 30 7);大气物理研究所LAPC(KF 2 0 0 3 0 9)资助项目

摘　　要：基于安徽省近 554年的旱涝等级资料 ,利用偏度系数、峰度系数、频次、累积距平等计算公式和方法进行分析。结果表明 :安徽省旱涝等级序列具有偏态分布性即涝明显多于旱的非正态分布特征 ,呈现干燥期、湿润期的阶段变化特性 ,以旱为主和以涝为主的现象间隔出现 ;旱涝序列分析和滑动t 检验法、Yamamoto法的检验方法都证明 1 72 3年附近、1 774年附近和 1 91 3年附近出现序列的跃变现象 。Based on grade data of drought and flood of Anhui for recent 554 years, the statistic analysis are made. The results show that the series are partial distribution, or floods are more than droughts, and the series have the feature of periodic variation, and the series also have the alternation between drought and flood. That turning points appeared in about 1723, 1774 and 1913, that were tested by the analysis with moving-t method and Yamamoto method.

关 键 词：旱涝 气候资料 气候灾害 跃变 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学] P467[水利工程—水文学及水资源]