我国货币需求的协整分析及其货币政策建议  

The Cointegration Analysis of China's Monetary Demand and the Monetary Policy Proposals

作　　者：王少平[1] 李子奈[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,430074 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,100084

出　　处：《经济研究》2004年第7期9-17,114,共10页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大研究项目 (01JAZJD790004 )的研究成果

摘　　要：本文运用协整以及弱外生和短期因果关系检验 ,对我国货币需求的长期稳定性进行实证 ,由此而产生的主要结论为 :我国货币需求的长期稳定性 (协整 )依赖于时间趋势 ,货币政策目标变量为M1,实际货币政策效应主要体现在促进经济增长。我国货币需求和利率是关于协整向量的弱外生变量。基于上述结论所提出的政策建议为This paper, through testing stochastic cointegration and weak exogenous as well as short run Granger causality, empirically studies the long run steadiness of money demand in China. The main conclusions are: the long run steadiness of money demand in the case of China should be measured by a stochastic cointegration with time trend, the objective variable for the monetary policy in China is m 1 , the real effect of monetary policy is mainly reflected on the economic growth, both money demand and interest rate are weak exogenous variables for the cointegrating vector. Based on the above conclusions, the present monetary policy of China should undergo a change to prevent the economic framework from the inflationary pressures.

关 键 词：货币需求 中国 协整分析 货币政策 利率水平 通货膨胀 弱外生变量 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]