广州地区冬季鱼塘水温特征及其预测预报  

Characteristics of water temperature of fishing pond and its forecast in winter in Guangzhou area

作　　者：杜尧东[1] 刘锦銮[1] 何健[1] 毛慧琴[1] 陈新光[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省气候与农业气象中心,广州510080

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2004年第4期52-56,共5页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目 ( 2 0 0 1BA5 0 9B14 );广东省科技攻关项目(B3 0 90 2 );广东省气象局重点资助项目 ( 2 0 0 2 0 2 )

摘　　要：冬季水温对耐寒性较差的热带、亚热带鱼类的安全越冬有重要影响。本文根据鱼塘水温和附近气象站气温观测资料 ,研究了广州地区冬季鱼塘水温特征及其预测模型。结果表明 ,与气温相比 ,鱼塘水温日振幅较小 ,日最高温度出现时间滞后 ,这种特征在逐时温度和日平均温度上表现得都非常明显 ;晴天条件下水温的日变化远大于阴天 ;随水层深度的增加 ,水温日振幅逐渐减小 ,位相滞后也愈加明显。水温与气温的交叉相关分析表明 ,水温与当日、前一日、前二日、前三日的气温有显著的相关关系 ,与前四日、前五日的关系已不明显。利用逐步回归分析 ,建立了以气温为自变量的各水层水温预报模型。各模型的回归效果都达到了显著水平 ,平均绝对误差均在 0 5℃以内 ,平均相对误差均在 1 0 %以内 ,具有较高的精度 ,可用于冬季鱼塘水温的预报。Water temperature had significant impacts on safe wintering of tropical and subtropical fishes whose cold enduring are relatively weak.In this paper,change characteristics of water temperature of fishing pond and its forecasting model in winter in Guangzhou area were researched in accoring with the observing data of water temperature in fishing pond and air temperature nearby meteorological station.The results showed that daily amplitude of water temperature of fishing pond was relatively small and occuring time of daily maximum water temperature lagged compared with air temperature.This character was very obvious in hourly temperature and daily mean temperature.Daily change of water temperature under clear weather was far greater than that under overcast.Daily amplitude of water temperature gradually decreased and phase lagged more obviously with the increase of water depth.Cross correlation analysis between water temperature and air temperature showed that water temperature had distinct correlations with air temperatures of present day,former one day,former two day and former three day,nevertheless had no distinct correlations with air temperatures of former four day and former five day.Based on air temperature,forecasting modes of water temperature in different depths were established by stepwise regression analysis.Verifications of these models were statistically significant and their average absolute and relative errors were not bigger than 0 5 ℃ and 10% respectiviely.These high precise models could be used to forecast water temperature of fishing pond.

关 键 词：鱼塘 水温特征 冬季 预报 

分 类 号：S964[农业科学—水产养殖]