水电工程项目风险管理初探  

Preliminary study on risk management of hydropower project

作　　者：殷许生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南勘测设计研究院,湖南长沙410014

出　　处：《水力发电》2004年第5期4-6,58,共4页Water Power

摘　　要：工程项目风险管理在国际上开展已较多,研究也较深入,但在国内,工程项目风险的研究多停留在定性研究的层面,如何定量估计水电工程项目的风险,是一个亟待解决的问题。风险管理主要包括风险识别、风险评估、风险处理和风险监督4个阶段。从设计变更、工程签证、不可抗力、物价波动、税费变化和继后立法等风险因素着手,充分考虑市场因素,运用蒙特卡罗法风险估计(预测),可以提高水电工程的风险管理水平。风险估计的主要步骤为:收集资料,建立风险模型,估计风险发生的概率与后果,项目整体风险评价。In the world there are a great deal of studies on project risk management but most of risk management studies at home are still kept on qualitative level. How to estimate hydropower project risk quantitatively is a problem that shall be solved immediately.Risk management mainly includes four stages: risk identification, risk appraisal, risk treatment and risk supervision. Risk appraisal and prediction shall be done by applying Monte Carlo Method from risk factors of design modification, project signature, force majeure, price fluctuation, tax rate changing and succession legislation and with full consideration of market factors to improve risk management level of ydropower project. The main processes of risk estimate consist of data collection, risk model building,risk occurring probability and result estimate and integral project risk appraisal.

关 键 词：水电工程项目 风险管理 风险模型 蒙特卡罗模拟预测 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]