中国区域经济时空动态不平衡发展分析  

On China's spatio-temporal dynamics and imbalance of regional economy

作　　者：刘旭华[1] 王劲峰[1] 孟斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理研究》2004年第4期530-540,共11页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家重大基础研究计划 (2 0 0 1CB0 3 5 ) ;国家 86 3计划 (2 0 0 2AA135 2 30 1)

摘　　要：区域经济发展是受区域内外的多重因素影响的 ,对区域经济发展的空间不平衡动态规律的研究是国内外学者研究的重要课题。本文应用区域经济空间动态发展模型对中国 1978～ 1998年的区域经济生产率增长率进行分析 ,寻找影响其增长的区域内外因素及变动规律。考虑到中国的本土化特色 ,在模型中引入开放优惠政策和区位优势变量 ,回归结果得到显著提高。研究表明 ,在过去的 2 0年间中国区域经济发展与国外 (如欧盟 )的发展规律不完全相同 ,具有中国特色。尽管各地区间的经济发展存在差异 ,但总体上中国经济发展满足一定的模式。The study of regional economic variation and disparity is an important issue in the international field In this paper, firstly we introduce an important economic spatio temporal process model developed by Fingleton B ,a professor of British Cambridge University The model based on new theoretical economic geography and endogenetic growth theory is a three period simultaneous model and can be applied to real socio economy to find the dynamic variation law of manufacturing productivity growth rate Then we apply Fingleton empirical model to the economic data from year 1978 to 1998 of China's secondary industryin 30 provincies (municipalies,regions) Since the fit result of period 1991～1998 is not very good, we add two territorial variables: preferential open policy and geographic predominance And the fit result of period 1991～1998 is improved significantly Technologic gap of regions, namely post advantage has become one of the first important factors in China's economic development in recent two decades, which indicates that regional disparity in China is significant at present Preferential open policy that is Chinese economic characteristic has very important effect in promoting China's economic development, and the positive effect has been increasing over the past two decades; therefore, preferential open policy should be applied in the central and western China as soon as possible But in China the increase of production is not necessarily doomed to result in the improvement of productivity because in recent two decades only in the period of 1984 1991 the former has a positive effect on the latter, while in the other two periods, namely, 1978 1984 and 1991 1998 such an effect is even not statistically significant This phenomenon disaccords with the economic law prevailing in the western countries, so we also should pay more attention to it According to the analysis results we arrive at a conclusion that despite the regional unevenness there is a general evolution pattern of regional e

关 键 词：空间连接矩阵 GIS 联立方程 空间动态不平衡 区位优势 开放优惠政策 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]