CO_2排放控制的动态宏观经济模拟分析  

Dynamic macroeconomic modeling and analysis of CO_2 abatement

作　　者：王铮[1] 郑一萍[1] 蒋轶红[1] 刘扬[1] 孔祥德[2] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息教育部实验室 [2]美国孟菲斯大学,tn38152

出　　处：《生态学报》2004年第7期1508-1513,共6页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目 ( 4 0 1990 0 13 ) ;教育部博士点基础资助项目 ( 2 0 0 10 2 690 10)~~

摘　　要：以 Nordhaus- Pizer模型和 L eimbach模型为基础 ,在新经济增长理论框架下 ,发展了一个气候保护分析的宏观经济动态模型 ,模拟分析了不同削减水平下我国温室气体排放的对我国 GDP增长和社会福利的影响 ,数值模拟发现 :如果不推动减排 ,我国经济增长到 2 0 2 5年左右将失去优势。如果中国适当参加减排 ,采用每年控制少排放 0 .2 %的水平 ,到 2 0 5 0年相对不控制将少排放 1 0 % ,对中国经济发展最为有利 。Based on the Nordhaus-Pizer Model and Leimbach Model and within the theoretic framework of new economic growth, this paper presents a dynamic macroeconomic model to analyze the impact of greenhouse gases (GHG) emission in China at different reduction levels upon its GDP growth and social welfare. The discussions regarding the China’s CO 2 emission reduction focus on cost and benefit or whether the economic loss will be recovered by the economic gains from the reduction of CO 2. There is no reason why China should abandon those reduction measures that do little or no harm to the economy. Through the simulation analysis of the influence of CO 2 emission reduction upon the national economy, the authors of the paper summarize the following: (1) According to the simulation, the Chinese national economic growth will decline around 2025 without the improvement of the GHG emission reduction。 (2) The simulation have indicated that the national economic growth rate will remain at a high level when the growth rate of CO 2 emission drops by 0.2% per year or by 10% at the year after 50 years. It is feasible for China to take a proper participation in the emission reduction in certain circumstances. (3) To implement the emission reduction policy, the higher the CO 2 emission reduction rate is, the greater the Chinese economy will be occurs. This impact will be more profound with the passage of time. The CO 2 emission is controlled at the expense of GDP growth and decline of the consumption utilities. As a developing country, China dose not have adequate capital investment in emission reduction and production. If the growth rate of CO 2 emission drops by 0.5% annually instead 0.2% or 23% or not 10% in 50 years, Chinese economy will certainly be affected.

关 键 词：CO2减排 气候保护 宏观经济模拟 中国 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]