中国原油价格与国际原油价格的互动关系研究  

Study on the Interaction Between China′s and International Crude-Oil Prices

作　　者：焦建玲[1] 范英[1] 张九天[1] 魏一鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100800

出　　处：《管理评论》2004年第7期48-53,共6页Management Review

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关课题"我国油气上游科技发展战略研究"(2001BA605A)的部分支持

摘　　要：石油价格的波动对国民经济和国家安全有重要影响。本文通过对中国油价与国际油价的走势、波动及与国际油价的因果关系进行了比较、分析与检验。结果表明:自1997年以来,我国原油价格与国际原油价格走势基本一致,但其波动比国际原油价格小,中国原油价格与国际原油价格之间存在双向因果关系,但国际原油价格对中国原油价格的影响迅速而长远,中国油价对国际油价的影响相对迟缓和短暂。研究结果对我国原油价格政策的制定也有参考意义。Fluctuation of crude-oil prices bears heavily on the economy and security of a country. A comparison between China′s and international prices shows that though having had similar trend to international prices since 1997, China′s prices change in a relatively small degree. A double-way relationship of cause and effect exists between China′s and international prices, but the impact of the latter on the former is quick and lasting while the impact of the former on the latter is slow and ephemeral. The findings are helpful for China′s crude-oil price policy making.

关 键 词：中国 价格 石油 国家安全 国民经济 国际市场 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]