烟草蚜传病毒病的逐步判别分析模型及应用  

Application of stepwise discrimination analysis to prediction of tobacco virus diseases transmitted by aphids

作　　者：任广伟[1] 王凤龙[1] 高汉杰 王永 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院烟草研究所,青州262500 [2]山东青州卷烟厂,青州262500

出　　处：《植物保护》2004年第4期57-60,共4页Plant Protection

摘　　要：利用1980-1999年在山东青州调查记载的历年气象数据和烟草蚜传病毒病的病情指数,采用逐步判别分析法建立了烟草蚜传病毒病的预测模型。应用该模型对2000-2002年烟草蚜传病毒病发病情况进行预测,预测准确度较高,拟合率平均为98.7％。Based on the database of meteorological factors and tobacco virus diseases transmitted by aphids during 1980 -1999 in Qingzhou of Shandong Province, the prediction models were established by means of stepwise discrimination analysis. The occurrance of tobacco virus diseases transmitted by aphids during 2000 - 2002 was predicted by using the established models. The results showed that the prediction accuracy was 98. 7% . Stepwise discrimination analysis can be used as an effective method for prediction of the trend of tobacco virus diseases transmitted by aphids.

关 键 词：植物保护 烟草蚜传病毒病 逐步判别分析 预测模型 

分 类 号：S435.72[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]