运用改进系统建模法对南海气象数据的建模研究  

THE MODEL STUDY OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA METEOROLOGICAL DATAUSING ENHANCED SYSTEM MODELING METHOD

作　　者：董言治[1] 周晓东[1] 沈同圣[1] 陈永刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院自动控制系,山东烟台264001

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2004年第4期426-432,共7页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

摘　　要：在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模方法,对南海气象数据中的温度进行建模并验证了模型的适用性。根据模型推导出格林函数、逆函数和自协方差函数等,并讨论了南海气象数据中温度模型的稳定性、可逆性和合理性。对系统的频率特性和谱函数进行分析讨论,并给出建模过程中的一些图像。根据模型的适用性检验发现,对所研究的气象数据而言,ARMA(4,3)模型是最合适的,具有平稳可逆性。所有的建模和分析过程在MATLAB上实现。实验结果表明这种建模方案简便易行,能够快速准确地确定系统的合理模型。The paper introduces a dynamic data system modeling method. Using the improved system modeling method, the paper studies the model of the South China Sea temperature data and verifies the model's validity. Then the stability, the reversibility and the correctness are discussed based on the Green function, the inverse function and the autocorrelations function deduced from the model. The paper also analyzes and discusses the frequency properties and the spectrum function. Figures are also shown in the paper. Based on the adaptability test of the model, we can draw the conclusions that the ARMA (4, 3) model is most suitable for the South China Sea Meteorological Data and the model is stable and reversible. All the modeling and analysis procedures are realized by MATLAB software. The result shows that the method is simple and easy to apply in practice. It can be used to determine the rational model quickly and accurately.

关 键 词：时间序列 系统建模法 ARMA模型 气象数据 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]