基于不同决策规则的产出系统的混沌与控制  

The Chaotic Behavior and Control of a Duopoly Model Based on Heterogeneous Expectations

作　　者：陈国华[1] 李煜[1] 盛昭瀚[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学管理科学与工程研究院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2004年第5期84-90,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70171028)

摘　　要：　建立了基于不同预期的两强竞争市场的生产动态调整模型,其中一家企业是有限理性决策,另一家企业是适应性预期.首先分析了它的演化混沌机理,然后以累积利润为指标对系统混沌进行了评价.研究表明,在这样的市场结构中,采用适应性预期的企业在竞争中较为有利.最后,运用不同的混沌控制方法实现了对系统不稳定不动点、不稳定2P轨道的稳定控制,有效地改善了系统的性态,讨论了企业在实施目标定向的逐步纠偏过程中所实现的多周期轨道控制.The paper firstly models the duopoly game based on heterogeneous expectations. One made a decision with bounded rationality and the other with the adaptive expectations. Its dynamical evolution is analyzed. We also evaluate system performance, and find that the firm with the adaptive expectations will obtain the relative competition advantages. Then we control the chaos with different methods. The stabilization of unstable fixed point and period 2 orbits are realized. We also discuss the result of the regulating behavior of the enterprise to realize the equilibrium state.

关 键 词：不同预期 混沌 混沌控制 

分 类 号：TP27[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]